Iranian Missiles Penetrate U.S. Air Defenses; What If North Korea Launches Nuclear Strike?

The devastating power of U.S. strikes against Iran is now fully evident. Numerous Iranian leaders and military commanders have been killed. The United States and Israel have been launching wave after wave of attacks against more than 1,000 targets, including Iran's air defense systems, missile bases, and nuclear facilities, inflicting massive damage. The U.S. is deploying not only conventional forces—carrier-based aircraft, stealth strategic bombers, and Tomahawk missiles—but also advanced technologies including Anthropic's AI model "Claude."

Despite what appears to be a David-versus-Goliath battle, what demands vigilant attention is the reality that Iranian missiles and drones are penetrating air defenses and raining down across the Middle East. Notably, U.S. air bases equipped with the world's most sophisticated air defense systems and the U.S. Navy's Fifth Fleet headquarters in Bahrain have been struck. A U.S. embassy has also come under drone attack. Missiles have reached Israel, famous for its Iron Dome defense system, causing fatalities. Last June as well, Iranian missiles penetrated Israel's multi-layered dense air defense network and inflicted damage.

In the contest between spear and shield, no perfect shield yet exists. The probability of intercepting an incoming missile with a single interceptor is only 60 to 80 percent. Using two interceptors raises the success rate to the 90 percent range. Variables such as decoys, electronic jamming, laser blind spots, and interception altitude mean even these figures may not be accurate. Defense becomes even more difficult against swarm missile attacks or hypersonic missiles.

Swarm drone attacks equipped with artificial intelligence are also formidable. High-powered lasers and electronic warfare interception systems are under development, but as shields grow thicker, sharper spears emerge. If offensive missiles outnumber interceptors, the shield is effectively broken. The cost asymmetry of countering drones worth millions of won with missiles costing tens of billions is also problematic. Moreover, the U.S. reportedly faces a shortage of interceptor missiles.

What is particularly alarming is the threat of nuclear missiles or an actual nuclear attack. Had Iran developed nuclear weapons, the United States and Israel would not have readily resorted to military force. If even a single nuclear-armed missile penetrated U.S. base defenses and Israel's air defense network, the damage would be beyond imagination. If Iran acquires nuclear weapons and they fall into the hands of Iran-backed Islamic groups, the diplomatic and security landscape of the Middle East would be upended. That is why Iran is pursuing nuclear development despite enormous risks, and why the U.S. and Israel are determined to stop it.

Nuclear weapons possession is thus a decisive factor in security dynamics. The United States cannot launch the kind of attack against nuclear-armed North Korea that it has against Iran. Even a single strike could hit U.S. military bases in South Korea. North Korea already possesses such capability. President Donald Trump once asked, "How about wiping out the entire North Korean military during their military parade?" according to former National Security Advisor H.R. McMaster's memoir. Yet he could not act on it because of nuclear weapons. Whenever the U.S. mentions the possibility of using force against North Korea, Pyongyang will predictably counter with nuclear threats.

South Korea is also developing various countermeasures against North Korean missiles. As is well known, we are building the three-axis system, with some components already in place. However, the three-axis system planned more than a decade ago has limitations. There are also deficiencies in intelligence capabilities and other areas. Our military is certainly preparing various countermeasures including electronic warfare and lasers, but perfection is elusive. If even a single North Korean nuclear missile lands in the heart of Seoul, the damage would be indescribable. Even if such a worst-case scenario never occurs, nuclear weapons serve as powerful leverage in negotiations and as a deterrent.

Kim Jong Un, watching U.S. attacks on Venezuela and Iran, will cling to nuclear weapons even more tightly. North Korea's denuclearization has become an even more difficult challenge. North Korea has reportedly completed a new nuclear facility at Yongbyon. The New START treaty between the U.S. and Russia, a key nuclear control mechanism, has also been abandoned. France says it will expand its nuclear arsenal to serve as a nuclear umbrella for Europe, while calls for nuclear armament are emerging in Germany, Japan, and Poland. With North Korea and China rapidly expanding their nuclear arsenals, we are surrounded by nuclear weapons on all sides.

The three-axis system must be strengthened and its completion accelerated—that much is certain. But with air defenses clearly failing to serve as a perfect shield, this alone is insufficient. Whether North Korea uses nuclear weapons for actual combat or as an all-purpose "treasured sword," we must develop nuclear potential and secure deterrence capabilities to neutralize this threat.