The controversy surrounding Kim Ju-ae, daughter of Workers' Party General Secretary Kim Jong-un, is intensifying. This comes after the National Intelligence Service stated at the National Assembly Intelligence Committee on the 12th of this month that "Kim Ju-ae is judged to have entered the stage of being internally designated as successor." The NIS cited evidence that Kim Ju-ae has been observed offering opinions on certain policies and that her protocol ranking has effectively been elevated to second place.
Whether Kim Ju-ae has already been confirmed as successor remains unclear, but she is clearly the most likely candidate at this point. North Korean media reported on the New Year's Day visit to Kumsusan Palace of the Sun on January 1st this year with Kim Ju-ae positioned at the very center. North Korea thoroughly controls domestic and foreign media through its Propaganda and Agitation Department, embedding political messages in every single photograph. Placing Kim Ju-ae at the center during the visit to the palace where Kim Il-sung and Kim Jong-il are enshrined can be interpreted as symbolically revealing her as the legitimate heir of the Paektu bloodline.
Kim Ju-ae's activities at the completion ceremony for the 50,000-unit housing construction project in Pyongyang on the 17th—promoted as the "most important project"—are also noteworthy. North Korean media released footage of Kim Ju-ae moving along a different path from her father, directly conversing with and embracing residents. In the North Korean system, direct contact with residents and listening to their opinions is the exclusive domain of "on-site guidance" that only the supreme leader can perform. On-site guidance—a North Korean adaptation of Chinese leader Mao Zedong's "field investigation (调查研究)" principle that "cadres should not govern from their desks but go down to the countryside"—is a governance technique that stages personality cult-based charismatic politics with the message that "the Supreme Leader personally comes to solve everything." Kim Ju-ae's actions are effectively mimicking the role of the Supreme Leader.
Symbolic titles essential for a successor have already emerged as well. When Kim Ju-ae attended a greenhouse farm completion ceremony with Kim Jong-un on March 16, 2024, Rodong Sinmun and Korean Central News Agency referred to them as "the great ones of guidance." North Korea's Korean Language Dictionary defines a "guide" as "a leader who illuminates the path forward for the popular masses in revolutionary struggle and leads them along the road to victory." This expression was previously used only for the Supreme Leader, and the fact that the same title has been bestowed upon Kim Ju-ae is by no means insignificant.
What remains, then, is the procedure for officially institutionalizing her successor status beyond the internal designation stage. Considering precedent, this will likely require at least five years. Kim Jong-il was institutionally confirmed as successor by receiving official party positions at the 6th Party Congress in 1980, and Kim Jong-un at the 3rd Party Representatives' Conference in 2010. Although North Korea is effectively a one-man rule system, since Kim Jong-un took power, the party-state system has been emphasized—the logic being that the Workers' Party leads the Democratic People's Republic of Korea. Accordingly, Kim Ju-ae must also receive an official party position to be confirmed as successor. However, since one can only join the Workers' Party after age 18, and Kim Ju-ae is estimated to have been born in 2013, calculations suggest a minimum wait of five years.
The Kim Jong-un regime faces considerable challenges as the official succession structure becomes visible. North Korea is extremely wary of faction formation and upholds "eradication of factionalism" as a governing principle. After experiencing challenges from the Soviet and Yan'an factions during the August 1956 factional incident, Kim Il-sung consolidated his one-man rule through thorough surveillance and purges. Elevating a successor early can expand the space for potential challenges to the supreme leader. While Kim Ju-ae is unlikely to directly rebel against Kim Jong-un, the emergence of forces rallying around successor Kim Ju-ae cannot be ruled out.
Kim Jong-un's health issues also serve as an important variable. Among North Korea researchers, there is a shared saying that "it would be stranger if Kim Jong-un's health weren't problematic." Even if Kim Jong-un doesn't die suddenly, if his governance activities become constrained for health reasons, the rise of a second-in-command becomes inevitable. The more this process repeats, the greater the uncertainty in the North Korean system.
One cannot help but feel troubled when observing the Kim Ju-ae issue. Since 1648, when modern nation-states were institutionally established, a fourth-generation hereditary succession in a system claiming to be a republic is virtually unprecedented. The fact that pre-modern hereditary succession is being reenacted on one side of the Korean Peninsula—which remains a divided nation even in the 21st century—reaffirms that the challenges Korean society must resolve remain heavy. This is why the completion of a unified nation-state still feels so distant.