Korea and Japan have simultaneously signaled an all-out push to catch up with China in the physical artificial intelligence (AI) industry. The two manufacturing powerhouses view next-generation robots as a future growth engine that could determine their national fate, and both are pursuing large-scale public-private projects. China, in turn, is accelerating mass production of humanoid robots, suggesting that global competition over physical AI will grow even more intense.
According to reporting compiled by Seoul Economic Daily on Tuesday, the Korean and Japanese governments designated physical AI as one of their top priority sectors in the advanced technology national strategies they unveiled in June. Korea announced its "Three Mega Projects" on Monday, while Japan released its "Strategic 17 Sectors" on June 24.
Notable are the global market share targets the two countries have set. Korea has declared its intention to achieve a 20% share in humanoid robots, while Japan has set out to reach more than 30% in AI robots, including humanoids. Both countries have effectively expressed their resolve to rapidly expand their robot mass production systems, which lag behind China.
The cabinet of Takaichi Sanae plans to invest a combined public-private total of 10.5 trillion yen (about 100 trillion won) in the physical AI sector by 2040 to protect its manufacturing competitiveness. In a report, the Takaichi cabinet stated, "In the AI robot sector, we will strengthen supply capacity in response to the rapid expansion of the global market," adding, "By securing a global share of more than 30% as the third axis after the United States and China, we aim to capture a market worth 20 trillion yen by 2040."
Along with expanding robot production capacity, Korea and Japan are placing emphasis on technology development. Their strategy is to complete a physical AI full stack, including commercializing foundation models that serve as the brain of AI robots. They also plan to pursue preemptive public procurement to form domestic markets. Both countries cited areas such as disaster response and national defense as sectors where they will adopt robots.
There are also differences between the two countries' strategies. Korea will concentrate on research and development (R&D) dedicated to the three key robot components where it is relatively behind: actuators, robotic hands and sensors. Japan, which has a strong materials, parts and equipment ecosystem, has decided to focus on supporting the analog semiconductor industry needed to control robot movements in real time.
"Korea and Japan share a common feature in that both are manufacturing powerhouses while also bearing the problem of a shortage of skilled workers," a robotics industry official said. "Physical AI is a solution that can innovate manufacturing while overcoming an aging population, so both countries have no choice but to stake everything on it."
The key is execution speed. With China, which has secured an early lead in the humanoid robot market, accelerating mass production, there is little of the golden time left to catch up. In a recent report, Morgan Stanley raised its forecast for China's humanoid robot shipments this year to 50,000 units, up from 14,000 at the start of the year.
Some have raised the need for Korea-Japan cooperation. In a report titled "The Next Five Years: The Golden Time for Building a Korea-Japan Humanoid Supply Chain," published Monday, KOTRA suggested, "Creating a joint business model that mounts Korea's vision AI and high-precision 3D mapping algorithms onto Japan's precision robot hardware frame could serve as a good model for cooperation between the two countries." The point is that Korea, which has strengths in cognitive fields such as AI, and Japan, which excels in hardware, could form a win-win relationship.
