Apple's first foldable smartphone, tentatively named the "iPhone Fold" and targeted for release next year, may not hold as much value in the secondhand market as expected, according to a new analysis. With its retail price expected to be around $2,000 (about 3 million won), the device's value could fall to the 1 million won range within a year of launch.
IT outlet MacRumors recently cited findings from secondhand smartphone trading analytics firm SellCell to highlight the foldable iPhone's potential for depreciation. SellCell said its analysis of secondhand trading data for flagship smartphones from major manufacturers, including Apple, Samsung Electronics, Google, Motorola, and OnePlus, showed that foldable phones depreciate far more sharply than conventional smartphones.
According to the study, foldable smartphones recorded an average depreciation rate of 64.6% over the first year after release. That is about 9 percentage points higher than the 55.3% average for conventional smartphones. It represents the steepest decline in value among smartphone product categories.
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The scale of the loss is even more striking. According to SellCell's analysis, foldable phone users experience an average value loss of $997.69 (about 1.52 million won) after 12 months of ownership, while conventional smartphone users see an average loss of $605.32 (about 920,000 won).
Applying this average depreciation rate to the iPhone Fold's expected price of $2,000 makes the situation even more dramatic. One year after launch, its secondhand price could drop to about $708 (about 1.08 million won). On a cost basis, about $1,292 (about 1.98 million won) would disappear.
The industry attributes the decline in secondhand value mainly to foldable phones' durability concerns, display crease issues, and relatively limited demand. In particular, the higher the price point, the larger the absolute loss inevitably becomes, which is also cited as a burden.
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However, the strong resale value defense of the Apple brand remains a variable. In fact, the iPhone 16 series was found to retain an average of 51.5% of its value even one year after release. That is higher than OnePlus (46.8%), Google (40.8%), Samsung Electronics (39.5%), and Motorola (24.5%).
If the foldable iPhone also retains residual value at a level similar to existing iPhone series, the situation could change. In that case, the secondhand price after one year is expected to be around $1,030 (about 1.58 million won). That calculation suggests the loss could be reduced by more than $300 compared with the average for conventional foldable phones.
However, the industry believes that even accounting for Apple's brand power, it will be difficult to completely avoid the depreciation burden of an ultra-premium foldable phone. Even if the iPhone maintains its high secondhand value, the asset value decline a consumer must accept within a year could reach $1,000 (about 1.5 million won). Even if Apple's first foldable phone succeeds commercially, its performance in the secondhand market is expected to be another test.
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