Climate adaptation facilities such as urban parks and restored wetlands can reduce heatwaves and flooding, but they may also drive up home prices and displace longtime residents, according to a new study from South Korea.
A research team led by Professor Kim Seung-kyum of KAIST's Department of AI and Future Studies, working with researchers from Peking University and NYU Shanghai, analyzed 221 cities across 32 African countries and found that "green-blue adaptation" policies, which expand green spaces and water features, can simultaneously improve urban environments and trigger gentrification — the displacement of original residents — the team announced Tuesday.
The researchers combined satellite imagery and socioeconomic data from 503 areas within 221 metropolitan zones across 32 African countries between 2005 and 2024, applying a "difference-in-differences" method to analyze the causal relationship with climate adaptation policies.
The analysis showed that areas where climate adaptation facilities such as parks and wetlands were built saw greater increases in home prices and population inflows than areas without them.
Areas with climate adaptation facilities recorded an average 41% rise in a composite gentrification index — covering housing prices, population inflow and neighborhood change — compared with areas without such facilities, while housing prices climbed about 13%. Inflows of outside residents also rose significantly. Facilities created to protect citizens from the climate crisis paradoxically deepened housing insecurity for economically vulnerable groups.
The research team recommended that environmental improvement projects designed to address the climate crisis should not weaken existing communities. The key, they said, is to view climate adaptation not simply as a matter of building infrastructure but as a "distribution issue" of how benefits and burdens are allocated.
"Going forward, climate policy must not stop at expanding green spaces and water features, but should be pursued alongside housing stability measures including protection of land ownership rights, public housing supply and the recapture of development gains," the team stressed.
"Climate adaptation policies can make cities safer, but they can also drive up home prices and population movement," Professor Kim said. "Environmental improvement must be considered together with protection of vulnerable groups and housing stability."
The study is the first continent-wide analysis to identify the causal relationship between climate adaptation and gentrification across Africa, and was published in the international journal Nature Cities on the 13th of last month.
