March 1943, in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean shrouded in pitch darkness. An Allied fleet led by U.S. Navy Fletcher-class destroyers fought desperately against some 40 German U-boat submarines to protect over 100 merchant ships. Though 22 merchant vessels were lost, this "Battle of the Atlantic" that ultimately preserved the supply lines became a turning point that changed the course of World War II. The desperate struggle portrayed by actor Tom Hanks as a ship captain in the 2020 film "Greyhound," based on a true story, now shows signs of being replayed across the span of decades in the Strait of Hormuz in the Middle East.
U.S. President Donald Trump declared that "the U.S. Navy will escort oil tankers" in response to threats by Iran's Revolutionary Guard to blockade the strait. This marks the revival of the convoy system that protected merchant ships during World War II. While U-boat torpedo attacks once strangled Allied forces, today Iranian suicide drones and missiles are the source of fear. More than 10 vessels have already been struck, and some 750 ships—including 26 Korean-flagged vessels—are taking shelter in nearby waters, holding their breath.
A blockade of this narrow strait, through which 20% of global crude oil shipments pass—and 70% of Korea's crude imports in particular—would effectively sever the arteries of the world economy. Markets are gripped by fear. Spot freight rates for Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs) on the Middle East-Asia route have more than tripled in just days, while cargo volumes have plummeted 80%. Shipping rates have become the price of sailors' lives.
Since the outbreak of hostilities, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude has surged more than 15%, with grim forecasts suggesting that if the situation drags on, breaking through $100 per barrel is only a matter of time. High oil prices fuel inflation, which in turn delivers a direct blow to interest rates and consumption, creating a vicious cycle. The government and businesses must be fully prepared. Just as Allied forces gained the upper hand during World War II by capturing Germany's "Enigma" encryption system during convoy operations, we too must respond with meticulous intelligence and strategy. Beyond diversifying energy supply routes, inspecting national strategic petroleum reserves and securing emergency logistics routes is not a choice but a matter of survival.