Goldman Sachs: Oil Prices Could Rise $10-15 on Full Hormuz Closure

A global investment bank has forecast that oil prices could rise by at least $10 per barrel if the prolonged Iran crisis leads to a complete blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. The average gasoline price at domestic gas stations surpassed 1,720 won per liter on the 3rd, with prices expected to continue their steep climb for the time being.

According to major foreign news outlets, Goldman Sachs estimated that global oil prices would increase by $10-15 per barrel if the Strait of Hormuz were completely closed for one month. If Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates operate pipelines connected to the Indian Ocean at full capacity and release strategic petroleum reserves, the increase would be limited to $10 per barrel. Without such buffers, however, prices could surge by as much as $15. These figures only account for supply-demand instability caused by logistics disruptions. Goldman Sachs' analysis indicates that the real-time risk premium—reflecting the impact of war on investor sentiment—already stands at $18 per barrel.

Market expectations are growing that international oil prices will exceed $100 per barrel. Brent crude prices have already risen to around $80 per barrel, and fighting between the U.S., Israel, Gulf states and Iran is expected to continue for more than four weeks. Even if Iran lacks the actual capability to close the Strait of Hormuz, the waterway would become virtually unusable while both sides exchange fire.

Domestic securities firms are also predicting an era of high oil prices. In a report released the same day, Hana Securities forecast that West Texas Intermediate (WTI) prices could soar to $120 per barrel under a scenario where the Strait of Hormuz is completely blocked and Persian Gulf refining facilities are damaged by escalating U.S.-Iran conflict. Even in a scenario where navigation through the strait partially resumes amid continued clashes, Hana Securities projects WTI prices would rise to $90 per barrel.

Domestic fuel prices are already surging. According to Opinet, the Korea National Oil Corporation's oil price information system, the national average price for regular gasoline stood at 1,723.07 won per liter as of 6 p.m. that day, up 21 won from the previous day. After remaining below 1,700 won since mid-January, domestic average prices exceeded that threshold on the 2nd and broke through 1,720 won for the first time in about two months since January 6.

By region, Seoul was the most expensive at 1,788 won per liter, followed by Gangwon at 1,734 won, Incheon at 1,732 won, South Jeolla at 1,726 won, and Gyeonggi at 1,724 won. Gasoline prices at some Seoul gas stations spiked as high as 2,780 won. An energy industry official said, "International oil prices are typically reflected at domestic gas stations with a lag of about one to two weeks, so price increases will be inevitable for the time being."