Goldman Sachs: Hormuz Strait Closure Would Push Oil Prices Up $10 Minimum

Global investment bank Goldman Sachs projects oil prices would rise at least $10 per barrel if the Strait of Hormuz is completely blocked due to a prolonged Iran crisis. Average gasoline prices at domestic gas stations surpassed ₩1,720 per liter on the 3rd, with forecasts suggesting a steep upward trend ahead.

According to major foreign media outlets, Goldman Sachs estimates global oil prices would increase $10-15 per barrel if the Strait of Hormuz is completely closed for one month. If Saudi Arabia and the UAE operate their pipelines connecting to the Indian Ocean at maximum capacity, the increase could be limited to $10 per barrel. Without such buffers, prices could rise by as much as $15.

These figures only account for supply disruption impacts from logistics bottlenecks. When factoring in the effect of war on market participants' investment sentiment, Goldman Sachs' analysis indicates the real-time risk premium reaches $18 per barrel.

Market forecasts increasingly point to international oil prices exceeding $100 per barrel. Brent crude has already risen to around $80 per barrel, and expectations are growing that hostilities between the U.S., Israel, Gulf states and Iran could last more than four weeks. Even if Iran lacks the capability to actually close the Strait of Hormuz, navigation through the waterway becomes virtually impossible while both sides exchange fire.

Domestic securities firms are also predicting an era of high oil prices. In a report released today, Hana Securities forecast West Texas Intermediate (WTI) prices would surge to $120 per barrel in a scenario where the Strait of Hormuz is completely blocked and Persian Gulf refining facilities are damaged by an expanded U.S.-Iran conflict. Even in a scenario where navigation partially resumes amid ongoing clashes, WTI prices would rise to $90 per barrel, according to Hana Securities.

Domestic fuel prices are already showing volatility. According to Opinet, the Korea National Oil Corporation's price information system, the national average price for regular gasoline stood at ₩1,723.07 per liter as of 6 p.m. today, up ₩21 from the previous day. After remaining below ₩1,700 since mid-January, domestic average fuel prices exceeded ₩1,700 on the 2nd and broke through ₩1,720 for the first time in approximately two months since January 6.

By region, Seoul was the most expensive at ₩1,788 per liter, followed by Gangwon at ₩1,734, Incheon at ₩1,732, South Jeolla at ₩1,726, and Gyeonggi at ₩1,724. Some gas stations in Seoul saw gasoline prices soar as high as ₩2,780. An energy industry official explained, "International oil prices are typically reflected at domestic gas stations with a lag of about one to two weeks, so an upward trend is inevitable for the time being."