Bitcoin investors need to hold for at least three years to avoid losses, according to new research showing that short-term trading carries a 47% probability of losing money.
Andre Dragosch, head of research at Bitwise Europe, analyzed Bitcoin price movements from mid-2010 to early 2026, according to Cointelegraph on Monday (local time). The analysis found that loss probability decreases significantly as holding periods lengthen.
The study revealed that holding Bitcoin for a minimum of three years reduces the probability of loss to 0.7%. For five-year holders, this drops to 0.2%, while the 10-year holding period showed no statistical instances of losses.
Short-term traders face substantially higher risks. Day traders recorded a 47.1% loss probability. One-week holders saw 44.7% loss probability, while one-month holders faced 43.2%. Even one-year holding periods carried a 24.3% loss probability. Investors holding for six months to one year recorded average losses of 35%, while those holding one to two years averaged 15% losses.
Bitcoin currently trades around $65,000, approximately 50% below its all-time high recorded in October last year. However, given that the average price three to five years ago was approximately $34,780, investors who purchased during that period and held for over three years likely remain profitable despite recent declines.
Market outlook remains divided. Global brokerage Bernstein projected Bitcoin could reach $150,000 by 2026. Standard Chartered forecasted a recovery to $100,000 by year-end. Investment analyst Timothy Peterson suggested a potential breakthrough to $122,000 by early next year. Some analysts warn that prolonged macroeconomic uncertainty could push prices down to $30,000.
The key variable is time. The analysis underscores that susceptibility to short-term volatility increases loss probability, while longer holding periods statistically reduce it. However, as this probability analysis is based on historical data, results may vary depending on future market conditions.