Steve Aicman, the veteran Wall Street fund manager known as one of the real-life figures behind the film "The Big Short," argued that investors need not overreact to short-term shocks from the U.S.-Iran war, saying "it could be positive for markets in the long term."
In an interview with CNBC on the 2nd (local time), Aicman was asked whether he planned to adjust his investment portfolio due to the military conflict between the U.S. and Iran. "I won't change a single trade," he said.
"From a long-term perspective, I think this situation is very positive for the market," he said. "Oil prices are rising and markets are reacting sensitively now, but if the situation unfolds smoothly, prices will return to previous levels within two months."
New York markets showed significant volatility after the U.S. and Israel jointly struck Iran and killed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Surging international oil prices combined with fears of a wider Middle East conflict caused sharp swings in investor sentiment.
However, analysts note that geopolitical conflicts have rarely left lasting damage on stock markets historically. According to Barclays' trading desk, since 1980, the S&P 500 has shown minimal average movement the day after major geopolitical events. Stocks also tend to recover within a month of conflict outbreaks.
Some market participants remain cautious. Surging oil prices and the potential for conflict escalation continue to weigh on markets. Even before the conflict, stocks were trading near record highs, with gains slowing amid uncertainty over artificial intelligence's broader economic impact.
Aicman described the Iranian regime as a "death cult" and expressed support for President Donald Trump's response. However, he noted that "this conflict will not end quickly," suggesting resolution could take some time.
On the third day since U.S. and Israeli military operations against Iran began, President Trump and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth signaled the possibility of ground troop deployment. Concerns are growing that the war could become prolonged, as the number of U.S. service members killed in Iranian retaliatory attacks rose to six.
President Trump said "the war will take about 4-5 weeks," while adding "it could take much longer." Secretary Hegseth also did not rule out a prolonged conflict, saying "the president determines the pace of war."
Aicman, a former portfolio manager at Neuberger Berman, gained fame for predicting the 2008 subprime mortgage crisis and profiting significantly from it. He currently hosts the podcast "The Real Aicman Playbook," where he continues to offer market analysis.