Iran has broken its long-standing principle of not striking first and launched a preemptive attack on the United States. The move is interpreted as a strategy to gain the upper hand in negotiations by pressuring U.S. President Donald Trump, whose room to maneuver is limited ahead of the November midterm elections. In response, the United States is considering two weeks of concentrated strikes, with the intensity of attacks on both sides escalating.
According to Reuters and other outlets on the 29th, Iran carried out a drone strike on a U.S.-owned liquefied natural gas (LNG) facility in Egypt. British maritime security firm Ambrey said a fire broke out from a drone attack at LNG storage and transport facilities at Egypt's Mediterranean port of Damietta. The previous day, Iran launched a preemptive attack by firing ballistic missiles at a U.S. military base in Jordan.
Iran moving first is highly unusual since the war began in February this year with the U.S. "Operation Mighty Wrath." Dr. Hamidreza Azizi, an Iran military expert at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP), argued on X (formerly Twitter) that "this is the first time Iran has launched an attack without a preemptive strike by the United States or Israel," adding that it "suggests a possible change in Iran's military strategy."
Analysts say Iran is exploiting the impatience of President Trump, who is rushing to resolve the situation with an eye on the midterm elections. Japan's Nikkei said, "Iran knows that the United States faces many constraints over military action," interpreting the move as an effort to "secure an advantage through a strategy of escalating tensions and steer negotiations with the United States in its favor." Iran wants to reproduce the situation that turned in its favor last month, when in the process of signing a memorandum of understanding (MOU) with the United States to end the war, it won in principle recognition of access to its overseas frozen assets and had its position of "ceasefire first, nuclear talks later" accepted.
Within the United States, analyses have also emerged that stockpiles of interceptor missiles to block Iranian drones and missiles are running low. The U.S. think tank Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) estimated Patriot stockpiles at 759 to 827 units and THAAD stockpiles at 234 to 278 units as of the 27th. These figures represent a reduction to 35 to 40 percent of pre-war levels.
U.S. crude oil stockpiles have fallen to serious levels. According to the Financial Times (FT), U.S. commercial crude oil inventories fell by 7.2 million barrels and the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) by 3.8 million barrels in the week through the 24th of this month. As a result, the Strategic Petroleum Reserve fell to 307.7 million barrels, the lowest in 43 years since March 1983, when reserves were in their early stages. A decline in crude oil stockpiles stimulates rises in oil prices and inflation, posing a political burden for the Trump administration.
The United States has warned of a fiercer counterattack against Iran's preemptive strike. In an interview with Fox News, President Trump warned, using profanity, "We're going to beat up Iran. Now it's our turn." U.S. Central Command Chief Brad Cooper, who commands the Middle East theater, presented Trump with a plan for large-scale airstrike operations lasting up to two weeks to neutralize Iran's missile capabilities, the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported. Cooper argued that "a simple tit-for-tat cannot break the stalemate," advocating a "large-scale airstrike" strategy that effectively neutralizes Iran's missile capabilities.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu met Trump at the White House and called for strong pressure on Iran. He also conveyed a plan under which Israel is considering a self-reliant defense scheme that would reduce U.S. military support to "zero" within the next 10 years. An Israeli official said, "Prime Minister Netanyahu is proposing a new MOU that includes 16 billion dollars in U.S. direct military assistance (FMF), in addition to 5 to 10 billion dollars in support for developing Israel's air defense network over the next 10 years." This is a sharply reduced scale compared with the 33 billion dollars in U.S. direct military assistance from 2019 to 2028.
