U.S. President Donald Trump has warned that he will strike "Pickaxe Mountain," a facility linked to Iran's nuclear program that is buried deep underground near a major nuclear site in Tehran, Iran. Trump's remarks have drawn attention to Pickaxe Mountain, which had been little known, overshadowed by Iran's main nuclear strongholds of Natanz and Fordow.
Deep in the Mountains at 1,600 Meters Above Sea Level... Survived Two Wars
In an interview with a media outlet on the 13th, Trump said, "We will take out Pickaxe Mountain," adding, "Tell the Iranians to get ready." According to Reuters on the 15th, the Pickaxe Mountain mentioned by Trump is located 220 kilometers south of Tehran and just 2 kilometers from the Natanz nuclear complex, Iran's key nuclear base. The Natanz complex, where two of Iran's uranium enrichment plants were located, was subjected to extensive bombing during the war that began with a preemptive strike by the United States and Israel on February 28 and during the "12-Day War" that occurred last year.
According to the Institute for Science and International Security (ISIS), a Washington-based think tank specializing in nuclear nonproliferation, the tunnel facility under construction beneath Pickaxe Mountain was not directly hit in the two previous wars. The mountain's summit reaches approximately 1,600 meters above sea level.
At the time, two enrichment plants were operating at Natanz, one aboveground and one underground. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), a United Nations body, analyzes that the aboveground plant was completely destroyed, while the underground plant was also at least severely damaged. According to ISIS's analysis, construction of the Pickaxe Mountain facility began in 2020. This was shortly after Iranian authorities reported that an explosion caused by an attack had occurred at the Natanz facility. At the time, Iran acknowledged that it had suffered serious damage from the Natanz explosion that could slow the pace of developing advanced uranium enrichment centrifuges.
In September of the same year, Ali Akbar Salehi, then Iran's nuclear chief, said that in order to manufacture advanced centrifuges, Iran had "begun constructing a hall that is more modern in every respect, larger in scale, and comprehensive, deep in the heart of the mountain range near Natanz."
IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi also mentioned in an interview with PBS Frontline in March this year that Iran had previously expressed its intention to conduct nuclear activities at Pickaxe Mountain. He assessed, "This was part of Iran's very systematic plan to conceal its most sensitive facilities deep underground."
Nuclear Facility 100 Meters Underground... "Even Bunker Busters May Not Penetrate"
ISIS, which has analyzed satellite images of the area, estimates that Pickaxe Mountain has two pairs of entrances, which connect to a large single facility located at least 100 meters underground within the mountain. According to a report released by ISIS on the 14th, the facility's physical defense system consists mainly of an extensive guarded zone and strong protective reinforcement measures at the tunnel entrances. A pair of tunnel entrances located on the eastern side has been partially filled with soil and other materials to block ground vehicle access since the war, but was observed not to be completely sealed.
Sam Lair, a researcher at the Foreign Policy Research Institute (FPRI) who jointly analyzed the recent satellite images, explained to Reuters that "the measures to increase the protective strength of the tunnel entrances are factors that make strikes by terminal-phase penetrating weapons such as bunker busters very difficult."
In its report, ISIS said, "Based on current satellite imagery alone, the facility has not yet entered its operational phase, and construction work is assessed to be ongoing." The analysis is that it is still difficult to predict exactly when operations will begin. It went on to point out, "With Iran's centrifuge program destroyed and even its ability to manufacture parts needed for assembly plants damaged, it is uncertain whether Iran still plans to install a large-scale assembly facility," but added, "Nevertheless, if Iran begins to rebuild its centrifuge manufacturing capability, it could plan to place a small-scale centrifuge assembly facility inside Pickaxe Mountain that could contribute to its nuclear weapons development program."
Military experts believe that this facility, buried deep underground, could be beyond the strike range of the most powerful bunker buster bombs possessed by the U.S. military. In response, ISIS assessed that it is "a target better suited to penetration strikes by ground forces than to aerial bombing." Lair analyzed, "We can infer that there are activities the Iranians want to continue at Pickaxe Mountain," adding, "At the same time, they are taking measures to reinforce their defenses because they are quite concerned about a potential strike."
