The armed conflict between the United States and Iran, which had subsided after the signing of a memorandum of understanding (MOU) to end the war, has flared up again. With US President Donald Trump going so far as to state that "the ceasefire agreement is over," Qatar and Pakistan have stepped in to mediate behind the scenes to prevent the collapse of negotiations.
"Working to Set Date for Next Talks Between Technical Teams"
Iran's state-run IRNA news agency reported on the evening of the 9th that the area around the Bushehr nuclear power plant in the south had been struck by US and Israeli projectiles. The outlet also reported that a naval base in Konarak, in the southeastern province of Sistan and Baluchestan, was hit by fighter jet airstrikes. On the 7th, the United States had struck more than 80 targets, including air defense networks along Iran's southern coast and small vessels belonging to Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).
Iran likewise continued large-scale retaliatory airstrikes targeting US military bases in the Middle East. After attacking US bases in the Gulf region including Kuwait, Bahrain, and Qatar, Iran expanded the scope of its retaliatory attacks on this day by firing 10 ballistic missiles at a US military base in Jordan.
However, mediators expected negotiations to continue, as both the United States and Iran want to avoid escalation. On the 10th (local time), Axios, citing two sources, reported that officials from mediating countries including Qatar, Pakistan, Turkey, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia held multiple phone calls with US and Iranian officials on the 8th. One source involved in the mediation said, "Broad diplomatic efforts are underway to first reach agreement with both sides on de-escalation and then set a date for the next round of talks between technical working teams."
Mediators had assessed that, up until just before this conflict, the United States and Iran had made progress toward a nuclear agreement. Regarding Iran's attack on a merchant ship in the Strait of Hormuz, which triggered this conflict, one source said, "We believe it was initiated at the direction of forces within the Iranian regime who oppose the MOU signing and seek to nullify it."
The United States also ordered airstrikes on Iran for two consecutive days, but it does not want an all-out war with Iran. President Trump is reported to have convened a meeting of his top national security team on the afternoon of the 9th to discuss the tense situation with Iran and the direction of future responses. A US official said, "The Trump administration is committed to finding a solution for the nuclear negotiations," adding that "talks at the technical level are continuing."
The intelligence on Iran's assassination plan is expected to have a considerable impact on future US-Iran relations. The WSJ noted that, in a situation where US-Iran ceasefire negotiations are already precarious, this assassination intelligence could serve as a catalyst to further deepen the conflict between the two countries.
Six-Day Funeral Concludes as Anti-US Sentiment Peaks in Iran
The conclusion of the funeral for the late former Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei also raises the possibility of renewed negotiations. The two sides had agreed to temporarily suspend negotiations during Khamenei's funeral period and resume them afterward. According to foreign media including AFP, Iran held a burial ceremony at the Imam Reza shrine in the northeastern city of Mashhad on the 9th, interring the body of Ayatollah Khamenei and concluding the six-day funeral. Meanwhile, Khamenei's son and successor Mojtaba did not appear even at the burial ceremony on this day.
Meanwhile, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, who signed the MOU to end the war with the United States last month, is reported to have faced fierce jeers and verbal abuse from the crowd during the funeral procession held in Tehran. These mourners, dressed in black funeral attire, waved red flags symbolizing "bloody revenge" and vented their hostility toward US President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
Netanyahu Exploits Gap in US-Iran Armed Conflict
As the United States and Iran engaged in armed conflict once again, movements by Israel to exploit this opening have also been detected. The Israeli Prime Minister's Office said that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and US President Donald Trump held a phone call on the 9th and agreed to continue cooperation between the two countries across the Middle East region.
In particular, Israel is reported to have passed intelligence on Iran's plan to assassinate President Trump to the US side. The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported on the 9th that Israel had obtained intelligence on Iran's assassination plot against President Trump and passed it to the US side. Earlier, President Trump met with reporters at the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) summit held in Ankara, Turkey, on the 8th and said, "They (Iran) want to eliminate the leader of the United States, that is, me," adding, "I saw it this morning too, and my name was on all their (assassination) lists."
President Trump subsequently boarded an older Air Force One on his return trip, then switched to a new Air Force One at the RAF Mildenhall air base in the United Kingdom before heading to the White House. This prompted speculation that President Trump may have changed planes midway due to security concerns such as assassination threats.
