Attention is turning to the reasons why the United States and Iran are exchanging airstrikes despite signing a ceasefire memorandum of understanding (MOU) on the 17th of last month. Experts see it as stemming from a fundamental difference in positions between U.S. President Donald Trump, who wants free passage through Hormuz ahead of the midterm elections, and Iran, which does not want to lose its dominance over the Strait of Hormuz. They warn that the MOU should have contained a clear agreement on this issue, and that burying it was the source of trouble. If the current situation continues, they worry, the possibility of all-out war will grow.
First, U.S. Central Command said on X (formerly Twitter) on the 8th that "at the direction of the U.S. commander-in-chief (President Donald Trump), it has launched additional airstrikes to degrade Iran's ability to threaten freedom of navigation in Hormuz." It marked the second consecutive day of airstrikes, following strikes on more than 80 targets the previous day. Reuters, citing a U.S. government official, reported that "the airstrikes on the 8th are expected to be larger in scale than those conducted the previous day." President Trump also posted photos of the airstrikes on Iran on Truth Social, writing, "This is retaliation for Iran's bombing of ships yesterday," and adding, "If this happens again, the situation will get much worse."
Iran also signaled retaliation. Majid Mousavi, commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Aerospace Force, warned on X that Iran "will retaliate powerfully and swiftly."
The United States carried out airstrikes for two consecutive days because Iran attacked merchant vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Between the night of the 6th and the morning of the 7th, Iran attacked three vessels, including a Qatari-flagged liquefied natural gas (LNG) carrier, a Saudi-flagged oil tanker and a Liberian-flagged oil tanker. In response, the United States launched airstrikes on Iran on the 7th and revoked its sanctions waivers on Iranian crude oil. Iran, in turn, said on the 8th that it had struck 85 U.S. military facilities in Bahrain and Kuwait. On the 26th of last month, Iran also attacked merchant vessels, and the two sides exchanged attacks until the 28th, after which tensions eased following indirect talks brokered by a mediating country in Doha, Qatar.
The Financial Times (FT) noted that "every time Iran attacks ships that do not use the Strait of Hormuz route it wants them to use, the United States attacks Iran, and Iran retaliates." There are a total of three routes through the Strait of Hormuz: one near Iranian territory proposed by Iran, one near Omani territory, and one through the passage between Iran and Oman. Iran is demanding that merchant vessels use only the route near its own territory, while the United States is encouraging vessels to use the route on the Oman side, escorting merchant ships from the air using fighter jets. One source told the FT that "with the emergence of the alternate route on the Oman side, Iran has lost control of the strait and is feeling frustrated."
Ellie Geranmayeh of the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) told the FT, "Iran does not want to give up its influence over the Strait of Hormuz until a comprehensive economic aid agreement with the United States is reached," adding, "For President Trump, on the other hand, reopening the strait is the core of the MOU, and if it is not achieved, he will face enormous pressure from Republican hardliners to resume war with Iran." She warned, "Before signing the MOU, they should have reached a mutually acceptable agreement on the strait," and that "the longer the current situation continues, the greater the possibility that the United States and Iran will return to all-out war."
