China and Russia are ratcheting up pressure by expanding joint air and naval military activities in waters around Japan and across the Pacific. Analysts see the move as a "show of force" squarely aimed at Japan, which has frequently clashed with China in the South China Sea in recent months and recently took part in a U.S.-Philippines joint exercise as an official participant for the first time.
According to Singapore's Chinese-language outlet Lianhe Zaobao on Monday, China and Russia will conduct their annual joint maritime exercise "Joint Sea-2026" from that day through the 13th. The Russian fleet arrived at the naval port of Qingdao in Shandong Province the previous day and, following a welcoming ceremony, completed the assembly of both countries' forces. After the drills, the two sides plan to deploy to waters near the Pacific to carry out joint patrols. Earlier, the two countries' air forces conducted a joint bomber flight through the Miyako Strait near Okinawa, Japan, according to reports.
Russia deployed the 11,000-ton missile cruiser Varyag, the flagship of its Pacific Fleet, along with frigates, submarines and a rescue vessel. China mobilized a large array of its latest assets, including the destroyers Kaifeng and Anshan, the frigate Wuhu, a supply ship and submarines. That marks a significant reinforcement compared with last year, when only two warships were deployed. The exercise consists of combat-oriented tasks such as maritime anti-air and anti-ship strikes and joint reconnaissance, and the two countries are said to have crossed the first island chain to test their operational capabilities in the Western Pacific.
Chinese military experts assess that the exercise goes beyond a simple joint drill and is focused on strengthening strategic approach capabilities. Chinese military expert Du Wenlong told Lianhe Zaobao, "China's naval activity beyond the first island chain demonstrates real combat operational capability," adding, "At the same time, it also serves to offset the dense series of military exercises being conducted by neighboring countries."
In particular, the intent to check Japan is seen as central. Chinese military commentator Song Zhongping argued, "With neighboring countries' military activities becoming more frequent in waters near China, it is difficult to view the China-Russia joint exercise as pure cooperation that excludes any particular country," adding, "Realistically, Japan is bound to become the main target of response." He continued, "As Japan repeatedly signals the possibility of intervention in a Taiwan contingency and revises its defense strategy, regional tensions are structurally rising."
Meanwhile, according to Japan's Ministry of Defense, Chinese warships have recently passed through major maritime passages one after another, including the Tsushima Strait, the Miyako Strait and the Osumi Strait, expanding their operational range. The ministry said Chinese warships have frequently passed through major straits around Japan since late June, with at least seven vessels deployed in the Western Pacific. Experts believe such movements, coupled with U.S.-China strategic competition, are highly likely to heighten military tensions in the Indo-Pacific region over the long term.
