Iran Begins State Funeral for Khamenei; Will Son Mojtaba Appear?

The state funeral for Ali Khamenei, Iran's former supreme leader who died on Feb. 28 in attacks by the United States and Israel, begins Wednesday. Because he was the figure at the heart of the Islamic system, observers expect a total of 35 million people from across the country to take part. There is a possibility the funeral could surpass the record of former supreme leader Ruhollah Khomeini, who is listed in Guinness World Records for the "funeral with the highest attendance relative to population."

The stalled peace negotiations between the United States and Iran are also expected to resume only after the funeral ends. With the two sides sharply at odds over toll fees for passage through the Strait of Hormuz, the talks have made no progress.

Starting in Tehran, Ending in Hometown Mashhad... Attention on Whether Mojtaba Will Appear

Khamenei's funeral will run for six days, from the 4th to the 9th. A farewell ceremony begins in Tehran on the 4th, and a large-scale funeral procession is scheduled for the 6th. On the 7th, a memorial event will be held in Qom, a holy site of Shia Islam, and on the final day, the 9th, his body will be buried in Mashhad, his hometown and another holy site in the northeast. On the 3rd, the day before the funeral, a memorial event inviting foreign dignitaries will also be held. According to Iran's Foreign Ministry, officials from more than 100 countries will attend. Russia's Dmitry Medvedev, deputy chairman of the Security Council and former president, and Pakistan's Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif are among those expected to attend.

Some observers say that up to 40% of Iran's entire population could take part in this funeral. The Fars news agency forecast that the number of participants could reach 15 million to 20 million in Tehran alone, and a total of 35 million nationwide. This amounts to 40% of Iran's entire population. When Khomeini died in 1989, official estimates put the number who gathered at his funeral at about 10.2 million. At the time, one in six citizens took part, and it holds the Guinness World Records title for the "funeral with the highest attendance relative to population."

The Nihon Keizai Shimbun analyzed that the Iranian government intends to enhance national prestige by emphasizing Khamenei's charisma through the state funeral, and to showcase a leadership system centered on Mojtaba Khamenei, Ali Khamenei's second son and successor as supreme leader. However, the possibility that Mojtaba will appear at the funeral is currently low. He is reported to have been injured in the attacks by the United States and Israel and has not appeared in public since. Nevertheless, even if he does not appear, he is expected to issue a message to the public.

Negotiations Likely to Resume Only After Funeral Ends

According to Qatar, the mediating country, the ceasefire negotiations with the United States are expected to resume after the funeral ends on the 9th. The two countries held working-level talks in Doha, Qatar, on the 1st, but saw no notable progress. The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported that "the United States offered compensation over the Strait of Hormuz, but Iran will not budge."

Steve Witkoff, the U.S. special envoy for the Middle East, and Jared Kushner, the eldest son-in-law of U.S. President Donald Trump, proposed in indirect negotiations through mediating countries that Iran give up control of the Strait of Hormuz and withdraw its position on collecting toll fees, in exchange for receiving several billion dollars out of its frozen funds.

The United States had earlier, after signing a ceasefire memorandum of understanding (MOU) with Iran, discussed a plan to allow $6 billion (about 9 trillion won) held in Qatar, out of $100 billion (about 155 trillion won) in Iranian funds frozen around the world, to be used for purchasing humanitarian goods. However, the WSJ added that this discussion has been delayed as Iran has not lifted its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.

Kazem Gharibabadi, the deputy foreign minister who led Iran's working-level negotiating team, said after returning from Doha that the Strait of Hormuz is under Iran's command, not that of the United States. The Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters, which holds unified command of Iran's military, also warned in a statement that day that all tankers and merchant ships "will immediately face a strong response if they deviate from designated routes or ignore navigation regulations."

The negotiation deadlock is also affecting maritime logistics. According to market research firm Kpler, daily vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz stood at 43 ships as of the 1st, a sharp drop from 75 a week earlier.