The honeymoon between the United States and Israel, which had been close at the outbreak of the Iran war, is unraveling. US Vice President JD Vance recently took a public swipe at Israel, saying President Donald Trump is "the only head of state currently friendly to Israel." Such remarks have exposed the displeasure of US leadership, which views Israel with growing disfavor. Amid this, ahead of Israel's October election, a rival of Prime Minister Netanyahu—a former military chief of staff—is rapidly rising.
According to Politico on Thursday, Israel faces the risk of losing the full support of the United States just four months after the Iran war. The reason is that critical public sentiment within the United States toward Israel—once considered America's closest ally—is steadily growing.
A leading figure in this opposition is Vice President Vance. At a White House press conference on the 18th, Vance emphasized that no country apart from President Trump is friendly to Israel, stressing, "If I were the Israeli government, I wouldn't attack the one strong ally I had left." This was a rebuttal to criticism within Israel that the MOU was too accommodating to Iran. Vance went on to warn that Israel should not assume the enormous US support for its defense would continue forever.
Multiple US and Israeli officials assessed that Vance's remarks were not a personal opinion but a signal of the Trump administration's new stance toward Israel, Politico reported. One Israeli political adviser said, "Israel thought it alone would be an exception even under 'America First,' but that turned out to be a naive idea."
Vance had shown skepticism toward overseas military intervention even before becoming vice president. On the Iran war as well, he had suggested that the United States should not be dragged in because of Israel. For this reason, Israel preferred to use the relatively favorable President Trump and Secretary of State Marco Rubio as dialogue partners. However, with Vance taking a key role in the Iran nuclear talks, analysts say a phase unfavorable to Israel has continued.
In particular, the issues of Iranian ballistic missiles and threats to Israel—which Israel is concerned about—were not discussed in the MOU, and the ongoing negotiations are limited to Iran's nuclear program, failing to reflect Israel's viewpoint.
The relationship with President Trump, considered a political asset of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, has also turned cold. Trump was reported to have called Netanyahu "crazy," using profanity, over an airstrike on Lebanon earlier this month. Since then, Trump has revealed his discomfort, calling Netanyahu a "wonderful man" in media interviews while assessing that he "tends to get too excited."
According to officials, Netanyahu visited the White House five times last year, but no further schedule has been set this year after his February visit. Calls between the leaders have also decreased. In response, the Israeli government is said to be attributing responsibility for the conflict to Vice President Vance personally, while still expressing trust in President Trump in an attempt to turn the mood around.
Experts predict the gap between the United States and Israel will widen further. Natan Sachs, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute, diagnosed, "Israeli leadership is aware of the rift, but it underestimates the seriousness of the situation," adding, "The United States judges an agreement with Iran to be in its national interest, but Israel cannot view the Lebanon issue as a secondary matter, so the two countries' interests are fundamentally diverging."
What About the October Election… Former Israeli Army Chief of Staff Emerges as Next Prime Minister
Netanyahu now faces a domestic public backlash as Israel failed to reap tangible gains from the Iran war. In the imminent election as well, the possibility of his rival, former Israel Defense Forces (IDF) Chief of Staff Gadi Eisenkot, 66, becoming prime minister is growing.
According to Reuters, Eisenkot has built an image as a political outsider, a soldier, and a security hardliner, and is gaining voters' empathy through the history of losing his son, who was killed in action in the Gaza Strip. It is an image that contrasts with Netanyahu, who faces corruption charges.
The newly formed Yashar party led by Eisenkot is expected to take second place in the number of seats in the upcoming election, after Netanyahu's Likud party, but neither party is expected to win a majority. However, the Yashar party appears better positioned to form a coalition government by cooperating with more parties than the Likud party, raising the possibility of Eisenkot becoming the next prime minister.
However, Eisenkot has been making a series of hardline remarks on Israel's regional issues, so even if he becomes prime minister, Israel's Middle East foreign policy stance is expected to continue. Eisenkot openly advocates the "Dahiya Doctrine," which refers to overwhelming force to annihilate hostile forces, and stated that the Israeli military should be free to attack Hezbollah anywhere in Lebanon, Reuters reported.
