The United States and Iran agreed to a ceasefire memorandum of understanding (MOU) on Saturday after intense difficulties, taking the first step toward ending a war that had shaken the world for 106 days. However, with the US denying part of the MOU content disclosed by Iran and Israel pushing back, a rough road is expected before a final ceasefire is reached. Analysts say the war has triggered a seismic shift in the world order across the economy, diplomacy and security, and international politics, shaking energy supply chains, igniting an arms race, and prompting the rise of China.
US President Donald Trump said on Truth Social, "The deal with Iran has now been finalized," adding, "I approve the free opening of the Strait of Hormuz and the lifting of the US Navy's maritime blockade." Iran's Supreme National Security Council (SNSC) also announced, "We completed the negotiations under the guidance of Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei," stating, "War and military operations on all fronts, including Lebanon, are immediately and permanently terminated." The official signing ceremony is scheduled to take place in Geneva, Switzerland, on the 19th. Vice President J.D. Vance is expected to attend for the US, while Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi are expected to attend for Iran. In a Fox interview, Vice President Vance said, "It is also possible that President Trump will attend." According to US broadcaster CBS, negotiating teams from the US, Iran, and mediator Pakistan will hold separate preparatory talks in Doha, Qatar, ahead of the official signing ceremony. The US Navy is also scheduled to withdraw on the 19th.
President Trump said, "Once the Strait of Hormuz opens after the signing, mine-clearing operations will begin." The two sides will then enter 60 days of negotiations for Iran's denuclearization. However, disagreements are already emerging. In an interview with The New York Times (NYT), President Trump said, "The deal with Iran will ultimately guarantee a permanent waiver of tolls in the Strait of Hormuz." Iran, on the other hand, made clear it would not give up imposing fees in the strait. The 14-clause agreement Iran disclosed before the deal stated that Iran should be able to access half of $24 billion in frozen assets before the 60-day negotiations. However, according to Axios, a senior US official rebutted, "The frozen assets will not be released without Iran fulfilling its commitments."
Bloomberg assessed, "President Trump has pushed the difficult parts to the back," adding, "Now those difficult parts will arrive."
Markets cheered. Brent crude and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures fell more than 5% during trading on the 15th, while stock markets in Korea, Japan, Taiwan, and China all rose.
