The U.S. government has officially warned of a possible "super El Niño" before the end of the year. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) said the El Niño now underway has a 63% chance of developing into a super El Niño, potentially becoming one of the strongest since 1950.
"63% Chance of Super El Niño"… Why Is It Dangerous?
According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, CNN and others, El Niño has officially begun, and this episode could become one of the strongest since 1950.
El Niño is a phenomenon in which sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific rise above normal, altering weather patterns worldwide.
Normally, trade winds push warm seawater toward Indonesia and Australia, but when the winds weaken, hot seawater lingers in the central and eastern Pacific or shifts eastward. In this process, sea surface temperatures rise and warm the atmosphere, triggering abnormal weather.
In particular, when tropical Pacific water temperatures rise more than 2 degrees above normal, it is classified as a "super El Niño." NOAA explained that in recent months hot seawater from the western Pacific has been observed moving thousands of kilometers and spreading to waters near South America.
Similar phenomena have occurred before. The super El Niños of 1982–1983, 1997–1998 and 2015–2016 caused heat waves, droughts and floods around the world.
"Possibly Lasting Through Fall Into Winter"… Concerns of Record Heat
Experts are particularly concerned about this El Niño because it is occurring while global warming is already underway. NOAA puts the probability of El Niño continuing through fall at 100%, and sees a very high chance it will persist into winter.
Experts point out that uncertainty is high because there are few cases of a strong El Niño occurring when global average temperatures are as elevated as they are now. Some climate models suggest this episode could be stronger than previous super El Niños.
As a result, some forecasts say global average temperatures could set new records within the next few years. NOAA analyzed that if El Niño and warming work simultaneously, temperature records are likely to be rewritten.
"Higher Water Shortage and Flood Risks"… Global Impact?
If a super El Niño materializes, the damage will vary by region. Australia and Indonesia face greater risks of drought and wildfires, while India and Southeast Asia could see agricultural production hit by reduced monsoon rainfall. The Caribbean faces higher risks of water shortages, and East Africa is expected to face a greater chance of flooding.
In the United States, the north could be warmer than usual while the south may see increased rainfall and lower temperatures. There are also forecasts that "atmospheric river" events bringing heavy rain could become more frequent in California.
While South Korea is not directly affected, weather authorities are closely monitoring the situation, as the likelihood of abnormal weather such as heat waves, torrential rain and changes in typhoon paths could increase.
Climate experts stressed that countries need to prepare, saying, "A super El Niño is powerful on its own, but combined with an already-heated planet, its impact could be far greater than in the past."
