Expectations are growing that the Iran war, which began with a surprise attack by the United States and Israel on Feb. 28, may finally be drawing to a close. Neither the United States nor Iran is fully denying the possibility that they could sign a memorandum of understanding (MOU) to end the war in Europe between the 13th and 15th. Diplomatic circles in particular are not ruling out the possibility that the United States could declare victory around the 14th, given that the date marks President Donald Trump's 80th birthday.
The problem is that Iran, despite having already suffered enormous damage, continues to provoke Trump by attaching the meaning of "having held off the United States" to the agreement. The prevailing view is that, having confirmed the vulnerability of the Strait of Hormuz and only driven up oil prices and inflation, the United States stands to gain little from a war-ending agreement. From Trump's standpoint, the political and symbolic achievements of "neutralizing Iran's nuclear program" and "victory" are even more necessary ahead of the U.S. midterm elections on Nov. 3. Because the White House has wavered between war-ending negotiations and prolonged hostilities for four months, financial markets are also cautiously watching the progress of the two countries' agreement.
"Deal within two to three days" → "Inevitable retaliation" → "Even stronger attack" → "Strike on infrastructure too" → "Bombing canceled"
On the 11th, Trump warned on his social networking service Truth Social that "tonight (the 11th) the United States will hit Iran very hard, as Iran has lost all forms of defensive and offensive capabilities including its navy, air force, radar, and air defense," adding that the United States could seize even oil-related infrastructure. In effect, he was signaling that he would raise tensions in the Middle East region another notch.
Earlier, as recently as the 8th, Trump had heightened expectations for an end to the war by telling reporters, "We've reached the final stage of a very good deal, and it will take two or three days." Then on the 9th, he forecast retaliation, writing on Truth Social, "I just received a report that one of our state-of-the-art Apache helicopters patrolling over the Strait of Hormuz on the night of the 8th was shot down by Iran," and that "the United States must inevitably respond to this attack." In the process, the New York stock markets, which had opened higher on the morning of the 9th, reversed to broad declines within just a few hours.
On the 10th as well, Trump met with reporters at the White House in Washington, D.C., and said, "We hit Iran hard yesterday (the 9th) and we will strike again even harder today (the 10th)." He went on to stress, "We are really close to a deal, and all Iran has to do is sign the document," and "Even though the negotiations are completely finished, Iran keeps dragging its feet." Trump also added that the United States could carry out airstrikes on Iran's power plants and bridges. On the 10th, the three major New York stock indexes plunged nearly 2% on the news.
The Truth Social message that emerged on the 11th amid this flow once again dashed hopes for a war-ending agreement. The market interpreted it as the biggest crisis since the cease-fire negotiations of April 7.
Afterward, Trump reversed himself again in just five hours. Posting again on Truth Social, Trump said, "Given that the discussions with Iran have gone up to the highest leadership and received approval, I, as president of the United States, have canceled the airstrikes and bombings scheduled for this evening (the 11th)," and claimed that "the contents of the discussions and the final issues have been approved down to the details by all parties including the United States, Israel, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Qatar, Turkey, Pakistan, Bahrain, Kuwait, Jordan, and Egypt." At a proclamation signing ceremony held at the White House in Washington, D.C., the same day, Trump also said, "We just reached an excellent agreement with Iran on the war," adding that "only the final coordination of the document remains." He continued, "It will be finalized in the coming days, and the signing ceremony will probably be held in Europe this weekend," introducing that "I cannot go, but Vice President JD Vance will attend." In response, the three major New York stock indexes answered with high gains of around 2%. Naturally, international oil prices also swung sharply throughout the 8th to the 11th.
Geneva signing ceremony on the 14th mentioned... Trump held a massive military parade on his birthday last year
Iran also did not draw a line against the possibility of an agreement. On the 11th, Iran's hardline media outlet Fars news agency claimed that "no text has been approved regarding the initial MOU," while also asserting that "on the 10th, mediator Qatar said the United States had withdrawn the additional clauses it had previously demanded." The agency also stressed, "Iran has returned to the original draft on which it had been awaiting final approval," and "despite the United States' noticeable shift in position, Trump is packaging it as though Iran retreated under bombing pressure." It added, "Iran has not yet given a final answer, and it is rather the United States that has returned to the past conditions," explaining that "because the United States ultimately accepted the original draft, it is observed that Iran's highest leadership is also likely to give final approval to the text." Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi forecast on X (formerly Twitter) on the 12th, "We are closer than ever to signing the MOU," adding, "All details will be disclosed to the public at the appropriate time."
Trump went further on the 12th, presenting a more concrete war-ending scenario. In a phone conversation with the U.S. online outlet Axios, Trump said, "We could hold the MOU signing ceremony this weekend (the 13th or 14th) or Monday (the 15th)." Axios reported that four U.S. Air Force C-17 transport aircraft had departed for Europe to carry related equipment, and that Geneva, Switzerland, was the leading candidate for the signing ceremony.
That day, Bloomberg also reported that the United States and Iran could sign the agreement in Geneva as early as the 14th. The 14th is also Trump's 80th birthday. Trump was born on June 14, 1946, in Queens, New York. On his 79th birthday last year, Trump held a large-scale military parade in Washington, D.C., like the leader of an authoritarian state. The ostensible justification was to commemorate the 250th anniversary of the founding of the U.S. Army, but it became a trigger for large-scale "No Kings" protests opposing Trump to spread nationwide.
There was also speculation that the war-ending agreement could coincide with the schedule of the Group of Seven (G7) summit held at the French resort of Évian-les-Bains from the 15th to the 17th. Trump is also attending this summit, and Évian-les-Bains is not far from Geneva.
In this regard, Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, who served as mediator in the negotiations, also expressed confidence on X on the 12th, saying they had "reached a final agreement text." Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei told Mehr news agency the same day that "the provisional agreement is in the stage of internal coordination, and no final decision has yet been made," but according to The New York Times (NYT), Minister Araghchi announced in a nationally televised speech, "The agreement with the United States has entered its final stage, and the highest leadership, including the supreme leader and the national security council, has approved it." Fars news agency countered, "The decision-making process is not over," and "the claims by some Western media and Trump that the MOU signing ceremony will be held in Geneva on the 14th are not true at all."
Iranian media again disclosed MOU contents in advance... "U.S. troop withdrawal, release of frozen assets, support for economic reconstruction"
The specific contents of the MOU were again disclosed in advance by Iranian media. This is interpreted as a move to preemptively block a situation in which Trump shows off as though Iran had raised the white flag. On the 29th of last month, when Iranian media first disclosed MOU contents that differed in tone from the victory achievements Trump had been promoting, Trump held a two-hour meeting in the White House Situation Room but failed to reach a conclusion. At that time too, Trump acted as though an agreement was imminent but ultimately wrapped up the situation by re-sending Iran a revised document strengthening the conditions the United States wanted.
The MOU details conveyed by Iranian media were as follows. On the 12th, Mehr news agency said the MOU consisted of 14 clauses, explaining that they included: an immediate and permanent cessation of war on all fronts including Lebanon; a pledge of non-interference in internal affairs and respect for Iran's sovereignty; complete lifting of the U.S. naval blockade within 30 days; withdrawal of U.S. troops from regions surrounding Iran; reopening of the Strait of Hormuz within 30 days; suspension of sanctions on oil and petrochemical products and derivatives and the unfreezing of financial assets; the presentation by the United States and its allies of an Iran reconstruction plan worth more than $300 billion (about 450 trillion won); 60 days of additional negotiations on issues such as the Iran nuclear question, U.S. primary and secondary sanctions, UN Security Council resolutions, and the withdrawal of International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) board resolutions; reaffirmation of Iran's pledge not to manufacture nuclear weapons; and a halt to U.S. troop reinforcements in the Middle East and a suspension of new sanctions during the negotiation period. Regarding the release of Iran's frozen funds, the MOU reflected a plan to first release $12 billion (about 18 trillion won) before the start of the 60 days of negotiations, with the remaining $12 billion made accessible during the negotiation period. The two countries arranged for the final agreement to be approved through a UN Security Council resolution.
According to Mehr news agency, the two countries decided to first carry out the release of half of Iran's frozen funds, the suspension of oil sanctions, and the lifting of the naval blockade, and then begin 60 days of final negotiations. The agenda of these negotiations is limited only to the disposal of highly enriched uranium, the lifting of sanctions, and Iran's economic reconstruction. Support for the so-called "Axis of Resistance" and Iran's missile program were excluded from the agenda. The Axis of Resistance refers to pro-Iran, anti-Israel military forces such as Lebanon's Hezbollah, Yemen's Houthi rebels, and the Palestinian militant group Hamas.
Iran's state-run IRNA news agency also reported that it had exclusively obtained a draft of the MOU and that it contained nothing crossing Iran's red lines. IRNA reported that the core purpose of the MOU is for Iran to retain control over the Strait of Hormuz and to end the war on all fronts including Lebanon. The MOU contents disclosed by IRNA, including the phased release of frozen assets and the 60-day negotiation agenda, were also in line with what Mehr news agency reported.
Minister Araghchi declared on a state-run Iranian TV talk program that day, "Nuclear negotiations with the United States will take place in the next stage," and "they will not proceed unless the provisional agreement is implemented." He also argued, "The U.S. naval blockade must be completely lifted," and "the only way to deal with the enriched uranium is to dilute it inside Iran." Iranian parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf urged the United States on X, "A promise once made must be kept."
The pro-Hezbollah media outlet Al-Akhbar reported on the 12th that a halt to Israel's offensive against Hezbollah was also specified in the MOU. Al-Akhbar claimed, "The agreement includes not only a halt to all military attacks across Lebanon but also Israel's abandonment of the occupied southern Lebanese territory and a plan for the rapid withdrawal of Israeli forces."
"Pay the money to negotiate" vs "Give up nuclear weapons to get the money"... After promoting "the war is over," accused of being "nasty people"
These reports differed considerably in tone from the MOU contents conveyed by the Trump administration. Flustered, the United States also went on the offensive in the public opinion battle. A senior White House official said on the 12th that the MOU contained the dismantling of Iran's nuclear program, the closure of nuclear facilities, and the disposal and removal of nuclear materials. The official claimed Iran had also agreed to this. According to the official, Iran would give up nuclear weapons development indefinitely, while the United States would carry out economic compensation such as the release of frozen funds and the lifting of sanctions in phases, in line with Iran's implementation of the MOU. The content refuted Iran's claim that "the money must be given first before it can enter into 60 days of negotiations," and declared the position that "Iran must first fulfill its nuclear-related pledges before the money can be given."
According to the official, the MOU also contained a provision that the Strait of Hormuz would be opened immediately upon signing. The United States would lift its naval blockade of Iran in line with the opening of Hormuz. A comprehensive peace agreement in the Middle East region, including Israel and Hezbollah, was also included in the MOU.
Trump did not hide his displeasure at Iran's disclosure of the MOU contents. The reason is that it was not content unilaterally favorable only to the United States in a way that would highlight the narrative that "Iran was subdued by overwhelming military force and made to give up its nuclear program." Trump wrote on Truth Social, "The conditions that Iran leaked as fake news have nothing whatsoever to do with what was agreed in writing," and "what Iran has said, including the weak and pathetic statement about having reached an agreement, has nothing to do with the truth." Trump went on to accuse Iran of being "really nasty people to deal with," and that "there is no such thing as good-faith negotiations with Iran." Vice President Vance also wrote on X that day, "There is a lot of false information about the reopening of the strait and a potential agreement to end Iran's nuclear weapons program," and "funds will not be released simply because Iran signs an agreement or attends a meeting."
According to CNN, Trump had earlier joined Georgia Lieutenant Governor Burt Jones's campaign event by phone on the evening of the 11th, promoting, "I don't know if you've heard, but today (the 11th) we ended the war with Iran," and "Iran has agreed never to possess nuclear weapons, and this is 95% of the agreement's content." Jones is a figure who ran in the Georgia gubernatorial election and advanced to a Republican primary runoff. Trump's core support base, the MAGA (Make America Great Again) camp, basically maintains a position opposing U.S. involvement in foreign conflicts. In a phone interview with the Italian outlet Corriere della Sera that day, Trump again expressed disappointment at Europe's previously uncooperative attitude toward the United States, saying, "European allies could receive very great help after the war-ending agreement with Iran."
Netanyahu, left in the dark, startled to see it on social media... Only financial markets like stocks, oil, dollar, and bonds swing day after day
Israel again appears likely to be a major variable in the war-ending agreement between the United States and Iran. According to CNN on the 11th, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was startled to see Trump's war-ending message on Truth Social while presiding over a meeting discussing security issues that day. Netanyahu was completely unaware of Trump's announcement that the conclusion of war-ending negotiations was imminent and that Israel had also approved the negotiation contents. Axios also reported that Netanyahu had not been notified of the negotiation details in advance. The report once again diminished the credibility of Trump's remarks about the war-ending agreement.
Netanyahu issued a statement on the 12th, asserting, "As long as I serve as prime minister of Israel, Iran will not possess nuclear weapons," and "on this matter, I have reached complete agreement with President Trump." Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz argued on X the same day, "We will never withdraw from the security zones in Lebanon, Syria, and Gaza," making a claim entirely different from what the Hezbollah side said was included in the MOU.
While the United States and Iran engaged in a war of nerves right up to the final stages of the war-ending agreement, global financial market volatility expanded once again. On the 11th, when Trump forecast airstrikes and then suddenly withdrew them, the value of the dollar suddenly fell 0.3%, recording its largest decline in a month since the 6th of last month. According to Bloomberg, the value of the dollar has risen 1.6% to date since the Middle East war.
International oil prices fell sharply through the 12th on expectations for a resolution of the Middle East conflict. That day, on the ICE Futures Exchange in London, Brent crude futures for August delivery recorded $87.33 per barrel, down 3.37% from the previous trading day. On the New York Mercantile Exchange, U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures for July delivery also closed at $84.88 per barrel, down 3.23%. The price of Brent crude fell to its lowest level since March 5, and WTI since April 17.
With the United States and Iran still making conflicting claims, whether the two countries will sign the MOU by Trump's birthday remains to be seen. Above all, if the draft agreement disclosed by Iranian media is followed as is, opposition to the agreement could resurface within the United States, including among Republicans. This is because the most important negotiations over nuclear matters and uranium have ultimately been pushed back. If the disclosed MOU contents are accurate, this appears likely to be not the end of an agreement but the beginning.
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