The United States and Iran traded missiles for two consecutive days on June 9 and 10, but behind the scenes the two sides pursued negotiations through mediating nations. Citing a source, CNN reported Wednesday that "Iran delivered a revised draft agreement to the United States through Qatar earlier this week, and the United States conveyed its position in response, significantly narrowing the gap between the two sides." Subsequently, Qatari special envoy Ali Al-Thawadi coordinated differences with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi in Tehran from the 10th until early on the 11th, which proved instrumental in narrowing the gap between the United States and Iran.
The fact that Middle Eastern countries dissuaded the United States from attacking also appears to have had an effect. Citing a source, U.S. online outlet Politico reported that immediately after President Donald Trump announced on Truth Social on the morning of the 11th that he would "strike Iran hard tonight" and "occupy Kharg Island and other oil infrastructure in the near future," Qatar, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Pakistan called Trump to dissuade him.
The development can also be seen as a result of the interests of the United States and Iran aligning. From Trump's standpoint, with less than five months until the midterm elections, further escalation of tensions could drive up oil prices and inflict a fatal blow in the elections. Iran, too, unable to ignore the damage from U.S. airstrikes, is assessed to have shifted toward an agreement once the United States showed a flexible position.
Attention is focused on the contents of the memorandum of understanding (MOU) the two sides will sign. Meeting reporters at the White House on the 11th, Trump said that "Iran will never possess nuclear weapons and will neither purchase nor develop them," adding that "the MOU is a little conceptual," suggesting it will contain declaratory content stating that Iran will not pursue nuclear weapons.
According to an Axios report citing multiple sources, the ceasefire will be maintained for 60 days in the region including Lebanon, with nuclear negotiations conducted during that period. The MOU also includes a basic framework regarding Iran's nuclear program, but the details will be decided in the 60 days of negotiations. The Strait of Hormuz will be opened immediately without tolls and will recover to pre-war traffic levels within 30 days. In return, the U.S. blockade will also be lifted. Trump stressed to reporters that the U.S. blockade would also be lifted, saying "that's part of the deal." Iran will receive a temporary exemption from U.S. sanctions so it can export oil for 60 days, and if Iran complies with the initial agreement and shows good faith in follow-up negotiations, the scope of sanctions relief will also expand.
However, specifics regarding the release of Iran's frozen assets remain unknown. Iran has demanded that $6 billion to $12 billion in overseas frozen assets be released immediately upon signing the MOU, while the United States has refused. Recently, however, the United States, Iran and Qatar discussed a plan to allow Iran to use part of the funds frozen in Qatar to purchase humanitarian aid supplies.
Iran's Mehr News Agency reported that the draft MOU focuses on nuclear and economic issues, including a proposal by the United States and its allies for an Iran reconstruction plan worth at least $300 billion, Iran's nuclear program, and UN Security Council resolutions, while Iran's missile program was excluded from the agenda.
Even if the United States and Iran sign the MOU, a rough road is expected before a final end to the war. A fierce tug-of-war is expected over the removal or dilution of the 450 kilograms of 60-percent-purity highly enriched uranium that Iran is known to have stockpiled, as well as the duration of any ban on uranium enrichment. Citing a senior U.S. official, Axios reported that "Trump agreed that diluting the highly enriched uranium within Iran under the supervision of UN inspectors could be one option for resolving the issue."
For this reason, some observers say the MOU period could be extended further, pushing a final nuclear agreement to after the U.S. midterm elections. With the 2015 Iran nuclear deal (JCPOA) having taken two years to conclude, the argument goes that a final agreement could be delayed without escalating tensions. Indeed, U.S. broadcaster CBS, citing multiple sources, reported that the negotiation period could be extended further as needed, and Trump likewise told reporters that day, "I don't want to give a deadline. This isn't going to be very important."
In addition, the Hormuz transit fee is also an issue. While Axios reported that the MOU will contain a provision for immediate opening without tolls, Iran has stated a policy of charging transit fees on ships passing through the strait under the pretext of services and the like. Whether Iran will ultimately give up such fees remains uncertain.
