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The two-day armed clash between Israel and Iran exposed only the "broken bromance" between U.S. President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. With Israel's general election in October and the U.S. midterm elections in November approaching, the standoff between the two leaders—neither of whom can afford to back down—is expected to grow even tenser.
On June 8 (local time), The Washington Post assessed that in the process of containing the Iran-Israel hostilities, the leaders of the United States and Israel—once strong allies—showed a public rift. One U.S. official bluntly told Axios that "Bibi (Netanyahu's nickname) can survive politically only if the war continues, while Trump can survive only if it ends."
President Trump faces the November midterm elections, which will deliver the first report card on his second administration. With just five months until the vote, a heavy Republican defeat is expected amid low support for the war and inflation driven by rising oil prices. To prevent a rout, the best course for the Trump administration is to reopen the Strait of Hormuz to stabilize oil prices and to wrap up the conflict with Iran at the level of strictly limiting Iran's nuclear program.
Conversely, Netanyahu—who faces a general election in October—is better off with the war continuing. In Israel's parliamentary system, the leader of the party that forms a majority coalition in the general election becomes prime minister, so this election is directly tied to Netanyahu's political survival. Public opinion is demanding a hard-line response to Hezbollah. According to a poll conducted by Tel Aviv's Institute for National Security Studies in late May, about 60% of Israelis said the fight against Hezbollah should be intensified. Giora Eiland, former chairman of Israel's National Security Council, told the WP, "A complete withdrawal of forces from Hezbollah would mean defeat for the Israeli government," adding, "Israel will only want to withdraw after Hezbollah is sufficiently weakened. That is unlikely to happen in the coming months. It could last more than a decade."
With Trump and Netanyahu locked in a confrontation that is bound to continue until both countries' elections wrap up at year's end, concerns are growing that Iran will exploit the situation to its advantage. Ted Singer, former head of Middle East operations at the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), warned, "Iran is testing the relationship between Bibi and Trump and trying to worsen the friction," adding, "Hezbollah is regaining strength, and the Houthis are also on the move."
Meanwhile, small-scale clashes continued even after Iran and Israel halted their attacks. The New York Times reported on June 8 that a U.S. Army Apache helicopter crashed near the Strait of Hormuz. The Israeli military carried out a large-scale airstrike on the southern Lebanese city of Tyre on June 9, and Lebanon's Health Ministry said eight people were killed as a result.
However, on June 9, after watching an NBA Finals game in New York and on his way back to the White House, Trump told reporters that "we are in the final stage of reaching a very good agreement," and when asked how long it would take to conclude negotiations, he replied, "About two or three days."
