A summit between North Korean leader Kim Jong-un and Chinese President Xi Jinping on Monday could shake the security landscape of the Pacific if it addresses sea access through the Tumen River, according to forecasts.
Japan's Jiji Press reported Monday that "there is a possibility that the development of the Tumen River estuary will be discussed as a key agenda item," analyzing that it "carries significant military and strategic meaning beyond simply expanding logistics networks."
Sea access through the Tumen River has long been a Chinese aspiration. China held territory connecting to the East Sea until the mid-19th century, but lost its maritime outlet through an unequal treaty signed with Russia in the late Qing dynasty. For more than 150 years since, China has demanded sea access rights, but North Korea and Russia remained lukewarm. Currently, instead of using the Tumen River estuary, which lies just 15 kilometers from Hunchun, China takes a 1,000-kilometer detour through the port of Dalian to reach the Yellow Sea. Securing sea access through the Tumen River would allow China to advance into the Pacific via the East Sea.
In particular, if sea access through the Tumen River becomes reality, North Korea, China, and Russia would effectively wedge into the East Sea encirclement built jointly by South Korea, the US, and Japan. This is because China's navy could advance directly into the East Sea. Until now, China's passage to the Pacific has been blocked by the First Island Chain centered on Taiwan and the Philippines. In the opposite, northern direction, the Tumen River connects to the Arctic shipping route, which could allow Russia to open a liquefied natural gas (LNG) trading route with China.
The situation has changed rapidly. The joint statement from last month's China-Russia summit included a commitment to "continue trilateral consultations with North Korea on the matter of sea access through the Tumen River, in accordance with Article 9 of the 1991 'Agreement on the Eastern Section of the China-Soviet Border.'" Xi said the summit "achieved significant results." North Korea, too, may shift its stance amid its exchanges with China and cooperate in granting sea access through the Tumen River.
China has already drawn up a plan to remodel the Tumen River. The core involves renovation work to raise the low height of a bridge connecting Russia and North Korea so that large vessels can pass through. It is likely to proceed in a form where China provides the design, equipment, and manpower, while North Korea and Russia contribute only symbolic funding. Japan's Kyodo News reported that China has already nurtured the Tumen River basin as a national-level cross-border economic cooperation hub through its "Changchun-Jilin-Tumen Development and Opening-up Pilot Zone" initiative, a development strategy for the three northeastern provinces.
