China has expanded its nuclear warhead stockpile following the expiration of the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START), according to a new report. As New START — which capped the nuclear forces of Russia and the United States, holders of 90% of the world's nuclear weapons — expired in February without a successor agreement, an arms race among major powers is now gaining momentum.
According to the annual report released Tuesday by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), a Swedish think tank, China increased its nuclear warhead stockpile over the past year. The report raised the possibility that the number of warheads deployed to operational forces has also risen. It warned that major powers are "backing away" from disarmament commitments.
As of January, China added 20 nuclear warheads to bring its stockpile to 620, up from 600 a year earlier. SIPRI projected that China is extensively modernizing and expanding its nuclear weapons, and that "the stockpile will continue to grow over the next decade."
Most of China's nuclear warheads are believed to be stored separately from launchers. However, during peacetime training, some mobile units may have begun loading warheads onto missiles. SIPRI estimated that China's operationally deployed nuclear warheads rose from 24 last year to about 34 as of January.
The report analyzed that China possessed 775 ground-based missile silos as of January. Its intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) launchers have surpassed those of Russia and the United States. Its ICBM holdings could also reach the level of the two countries by around 2030.
Citing U.S. government sources, the report stated that nuclear warheads may have been mounted on some of the 100 missiles deployed at three new silo fields. Warheads may also have been loaded onto nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines that conduct near-constant deterrence patrols.
"This represents a shift away from China's long-standing policy of storing warheads and missiles separately," the report said. "Combined with the early-warning system under development, this deployment appears aimed at strengthening China's second-strike nuclear capability."
SIPRI noted, however, that even if China's stockpile exceeds 1,000 warheads by 2030, it would still amount to only about a quarter of Russia's or the United States' current holdings. At a military parade last September, China unveiled new ICBMs as well as submarine- and air-launched ballistic missiles, expanding and diversifying its nuclear weapons systems.
China has repeatedly stated that it adheres to a defensive no-first-use nuclear strategy, maintains its nuclear forces at the minimum level for national security, and does not participate in an arms race. But Hans Kristensen, head of SIPRI's Nuclear Information Project, said, "There is growing evidence that nuclear-armed states are turning their backs on disarmament commitments and flexing their nuclear muscles." He added that they are "creating new dangers and fueling an arms race."
Meanwhile, the nine nuclear-armed states — the United States, Russia, China, Britain, France, India, Pakistan, North Korea and Israel — continued their nuclear weapons modernization programs last year. As of January, the world's total nuclear warheads were counted at 12,187. Of these, 9,745 were usable military stockpiles, and about 4,012 were operationally deployed on missiles and aircraft.
