The war pitting the United States and Israel against Iran, which broke out on Feb. 28, reached its 100th day on Sunday. President Donald Trump boasted shortly after the airstrikes that "it will be over in four to five weeks," but in an interview on Friday he said it was "going to take some time" to reach an agreement. With the U.S. failing to achieve its core goals of regime change in Iran and the destruction of nuclear weapons, and with the U.S. midterm elections fast approaching, the burden on the Trump administration is only growing.
Iran Death Toll at 3,468; Hormuz Traffic Plunges From 100 to 3 Ships
On Sunday, UAE-based Gulf News, Al Jazeera and other Middle Eastern outlets spotlighted the situation in the Iran war as it entered its 100th day. While large-scale casualties stopped with the start of a ceasefire on April 8, the toll has already reached some 30,000. According to Iran's Ministry of Health, the war has killed at least 3,468 Iranians and wounded more than 26,500 as of June 1. In Israel, 26 were killed in action, and in the United States, 13 were killed in action. Casualties also occurred in Oman, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and other Middle Eastern countries previously considered relatively safe.
The economic damage extends beyond the Gulf states, due to Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly 20% of the world's crude oil shipments pass. Ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, which had reached around 100 vessels, plunged to an average of three a day. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose about 37% from $67.02 a barrel on Feb. 27, just before the war, to $90.54 on Friday, and U.S. crude and petroleum product inventories fell to 1.57 billion barrels, the lowest level in some 20 years. Norway-based energy consultancy Rystad Energy estimated that the cost of repairing energy-related infrastructure in the Middle East caused by the Iran war could reach up to $58 billion (about 90 trillion won). International Energy Agency (IEA) Executive Director Fatih Birol said in April that "more than 80 energy facilities across the Middle East have been attacked or damaged by the Iran war, and more than a third of them suffered severe damage."
Trump Shifts Stance Toward Khamenei's Son Mojtaba: "It Would Be an Honor to Meet"
Despite the heavy cost, the Trump administration has failed to achieve the war goals it set out. Gulf News assessed that "the U.S. military operation inflicted significant damage on Iran's leadership and military infrastructure," but added that "many of the Trump administration's goals have yet to be completed." On Iran, it analyzed that "it can continue to exert economic and strategic pressure through the Gulf region and will remain at the center of any future agreement."
The two core goals President Trump set out when he launched the "Epic Fury" operation against Iran were regime change in Iran and the destruction of nuclear weapons. On the first day of the operation, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who had ruled Iran for more than 30 years, was killed, and dozens including senior figures of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) lost their lives. However, as Khamenei's son Mojtaba rose to supreme leader, the influence of hardliners only grew stronger. President Trump, who had said "I don't like him" right after Mojtaba was elevated to supreme leader, shifted his stance at a meeting with reporters at the White House on Thursday, saying of a possible summit with Mojtaba, "It's not that I necessarily want to meet, but it would be an honor if we met."
Hopes for Letter Diplomacy From Pakistan; Tug-of-War Over 37 Trillion Won in Frozen Assets
The U.S. has also failed to draw Iran into abandoning its highly enriched uranium. The U.S. and Iran are currently drafting a memorandum of understanding (MOU) to end the war, but they have agreed to negotiate how to handle the highly enriched uranium over a 60-day period after the MOU is signed. With negotiations hitting a wall, the matter was pushed off as a later task.
War reparations are also a stumbling block in negotiations, as the gap widens over Iranian frozen assets amounting to $24 billion (about 37 trillion won). Iran has made the unfreezing of assets a precondition for negotiations, while the United States is reportedly considering using the frozen assets to cover the recovery costs of the Gulf allies Iran attacked.
The two sides continued localized clashes on Saturday as well. On Saturday, U.S. Central Command announced that it "shot down two Iranian suicide attack drones that had been threatening international maritime traffic in the Strait of Hormuz." Central Command earlier announced that it had shot down four Iranian drones launched toward the Strait of Hormuz. CNN reported, based on recent satellite image analysis, that Iran had restored 50 of the 69 tunnel entrances leading to underground missile facilities. Neutralizing Iran's missile capability was the first of the five war goals President Trump laid out in March.
However, the two sides have not completely given up on negotiations. Iran's economic isolation is deepening, and the Trump administration faces mounting pressure ahead of the November midterm elections. According to Iran's state-run IRNA and other foreign media, Pakistani Interior Minister Mohsin Raza Naqvi visited Tehran on Saturday. Naqvi is reported to have delivered to Mojtaba's side a personal letter from Pakistani army chief Asim Munir, known as a key figure in the Iran negotiations. There was also news that Trump's Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff and his son-in-law Jared Kushner visited the national laboratory in Oak Ridge, Tennessee, on Thursday. According to Axios, the Oak Ridge laboratory is staffed with top experts in uranium processing and centrifuge technology and was previously involved in handling nuclear materials in Kazakhstan and Libya. The move is interpreted as a step to handle the issue of Iran's uranium processing on a practical level.
