Chinese President Xi Jinping will make a state visit to North Korea on June 8-9. It marks his first visit since June 2019, seven years ago. The trip is expected to formalize the restoration of the North Korea-China alliance, following Xi's earlier declaration of "an equal relationship with the United States."
China's state-run Xinhua News Agency reported Thursday, citing the International Liaison Department of the Communist Party's Central Committee, that Xi would visit North Korea at the invitation of Kim Jong-un, General Secretary of the Workers' Party of Korea and Chairman of the State Affairs Commission. The Korean Central News Agency also announced that "at the invitation of Comrade Kim Jong-un, General Secretary of the Workers' Party of Korea and Chairman of the State Affairs Commission of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea, Comrade Xi Jinping, General Secretary of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and President of the People's Republic of China, will pay a state visit to the Democratic People's Republic of Korea on June 8-9."
Xi held talks with U.S. President Donald Trump for two days starting May 14, followed by Russian President Vladimir Putin's visit to China on May 19-20. The meeting with Kim comes about nine months after the Victory Day military parade last September. This means Xi will have met the leaders of the United States, Russia and North Korea within a single month. Analysts say that the announcement being handled by the International Liaison Department rather than China's Foreign Ministry indicates the visit carries a strong character of strategic exchange between North Korea and China, going beyond state-to-state diplomacy. The meeting is expected to address expanding North Korea-China-Russia cooperation, economic cooperation with North Korea, the Tumen River sea access issue, and U.S.-Japan strategic competition as major agenda items.
With Xi visiting North Korea for the first time in seven years after meeting Russian President Putin, the North Korea-China-Russia triangular alignment appears to be growing more solid. This is because this year marks the 65th anniversary of the "Treaty of Friendship, Cooperation and Mutual Assistance between North Korea and China," signed by President Kim Il-sung and Premier Zhou Enlai, making it likely the outcome will be discussed. In particular, analysts say that as North Korea and Russia strengthen military and security cooperation in a show of closeness, China's move carries the intent to demonstrate its influence over North Korea.
Foreign Policy (FP) said, "North Korea's strategic value to China has grown again," adding that "with China-Japan relations deteriorating, North Korea is a buffer zone for China and a card to check the United States and Japan."
Some interpret that as Trump's leadership wavers amid issues such as the Iran war, and as Xi has declared "an equal relationship with the United States," the "anti-U.S. coalition" is being consolidated. In a joint statement released immediately after the China-Russia summit, the two emphasized their opposition to sanctions and pressure on North Korea and their support for a political resolution of the Korean Peninsula issue.
The Yomiuri Shimbun assessed that "China had been displeased with North Korea strengthening relations with Russia by sending troops to the war in Ukraine, but a trend toward improving North Korea-China relations emerged with Kim Jong-un's attendance at China's 80th Victory Day commemoration last September."
In particular, with the North Korea-China-Russia triangular alignment strengthening, the prospect of North Korea's denuclearization, which the United States has emphasized, appears low. After the U.S.-China summit, the White House said the two leaders confirmed their shared goal of North Korea's denuclearization, but the Chinese side announced only that they had discussed important international issues such as the situation on the Korean Peninsula. In addition, on June 3, just before the announcement of Xi's visit, Kim Jong-un visited a new "nuclear material production plant" to demonstrate his commitment to nuclear armament.
The South China Morning Post (SCMP) also assessed that the visit was "to show the strong bond between the two countries," adding that "China and North Korea are carefully rebuilding their relationship after years of relative isolation due to the pandemic and China's concerns over North Korea-Russia military cooperation."
It continued, "Xi's visit comes amid shifting geopolitical dynamics on the Korean Peninsula," adding that "China has strategic partnerships with several countries including Russia, Pakistan and Iran, but the only formal and legally binding mutual defense treaty it currently maintains is the Treaty of Friendship, Cooperation and Mutual Assistance between North Korea and China, signed in 1961."
Kyodo News, referring to Xi's talks with U.S. President Donald Trump last month followed by his meeting with President Putin, predicted that "Xi and Kim appear likely to seek to strengthen cooperation with an eye on relations with the United States."
Meanwhile, China has long been North Korea's most important ally and major economic supporter. It is known to account for more than 90% of North Korea's total trade volume. According to Chinese customs data, trade between China and North Korea last year reached 19.6 billion yuan (about 4.5 trillion won), close to pre-pandemic levels, and was projected to increase 26% from the previous year.
