Japan's air conditioner market is experiencing an unprecedented shortage as an early heatwave, tighter environmental regulations, and raw material supply disruptions converge simultaneously. Some popular models reportedly take up to three months to install after purchase.
According to the Asahi Shimbun and other outlets on the 2nd, lines have been forming at Japanese electronics stores for air conditioner purchase consultations. Supply is failing to keep pace with demand as consumers rush to buy ahead of the peak summer season.
The driver is a new energy efficiency standard set to take effect in 2027. As part of its decarbonization policy, the Japanese government plans to raise energy consumption efficiency standards for household air conditioners by up to 35% from current levels. The industry estimates that products meeting the new standards could cost more than 50% more than existing models.
As word of the potential price hike spread, consumers have been scrambling to secure relatively cheaper existing models, effectively creating an "air conditioner hoarding" phenomenon. According to the Japan Electrical Manufacturers' Association, air conditioner shipments in April surpassed 100 billion yen (approximately 950 billion won), up 34% year-on-year and a record high.
Middle East Crisis Compounds Parts Shortage; Installation Costs Up 20%
Supply chains are wobbling alongside the demand surge. Worsening conditions in the Middle East have destabilized the supply of naphtha — a feedstock for petrochemicals — and industrial copper, making it harder to procure piping, hoses, and insulation materials needed for air conditioner installation.
The industry says competition for materials is intensifying, driving installation costs up rapidly. In some regions, installation fees have reportedly risen about 20% compared to several months ago. Even after securing a unit, more customers are facing significant delays before actual use due to shortages of installers and materials.
The supply crunch appears to be spreading across Japan's manufacturing sector. Small and medium-sized enterprises in particular are experiencing production disruptions as they lose out to larger companies in the race to secure raw materials.
"Summer Is Peak Season, but Sales Are One-Tenth": SMEs Cry Out
According to the Nikkei Shimbun on the 25th of last month, Terano Technology, which produces heat-shielding paint for air conditioner outdoor units in Hamamatsu, Shizuoka Prefecture, has secured only 10–20% of its usual supply of key resin raw materials and has been limiting shipments. The company's sales reportedly stand at just one-tenth of the previous year's level.
The problem is that even when raw materials can be obtained, it is difficult to pass the cost burden on to consumer prices. An acrylic processing company in Osaka has seen raw material prices rise by nearly 40% but has been unable to properly raise its selling prices due to concerns about losing customers.
In contrast, large corporations with strong brand power are raising prices relatively easily. Major Japanese paint companies have pushed through price adjustments of up to 75%, while mid-sized and small companies have limited their increases out of concern over losing market share.
A Japan Chamber of Commerce and Industry survey found that only about half of SMEs have passed on more than 40% of cost increases to selling prices. Among very small businesses with around 10 employees, this ratio fell to 40%.
"Can't Even Guarantee Profits Three Months Out": Shock Spreads Across Japan's Economy
Management uncertainty is also growing. Japan's Small and Medium Enterprise Agency has expanded its consultation channels to respond to the deteriorating Middle East situation, and the number of inquiries received has already exceeded 12,000.
Most consultations concern survival-critical issues such as raw material procurement disruptions, declining transactions, and securing operating funds. Some manufacturers are worried about deteriorating profitability in the coming months as plastic raw material prices have risen by up to 50%.
Experts point out that the current supply crunch goes beyond a simple air conditioner shortage and exposes the vulnerable supply chain structure of the Japanese economy and the lack of pricing power among SMEs. Analysts say the raw material shock triggered by the Middle East crisis is increasingly likely to spread beyond the summer consumer market to Japanese industry as a whole.
