The Strait of Hormuz, the world's energy artery, is approaching 100 days under blockade. A war that began in early spring has now stretched into early summer. While a prolonged conflict itself constitutes a deeply adverse scenario, the heatwave brought forward by climate change is making matters worse. Surging international oil and LNG prices driven by Middle East supply concerns, combined with actual fuel procurement difficulties in some countries, are weakening their capacity to respond to extreme heat.
Tropical Nights Already in June
Now into June, it is already quite hot. In Gangneung, Gangwon Province, a tropical night — when temperatures do not fall below 25 degrees Celsius — occurred from 6:01 p.m. on May 30 through 9 a.m. the following day, May 31. It was the third-earliest tropical night on record, following those in 2019 (May 24) and 2014 (May 29). On May 31, Wando in South Jeolla Province (daily high of 32.6 degrees Celsius) and Hongseong in South Chungcheong Province (31.6 degrees Celsius) set new May high-temperature records since observations began. Seoul is also more than 4 degrees warmer than usual.
Other countries are in similar situations. In neighboring Japan, daytime temperatures exceeded 30 degrees Celsius from Kyushu to the Kanto region from mid-May. Europe and North America are already enduring midsummer heat. The most severe heatwave is currently striking South Asia, including India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh. Some areas there already exceeded 45 degrees Celsius last month. Combined with the El Niño phenomenon, in which equatorial Pacific sea surface temperatures rise abnormally, South Asia is battling what can only be described as a deadly heatwave.
"Power Demand Now Driven by Cooling, Not the Economy"
The problem is that energy supply instability stemming from the Middle East is straining national power systems. Some countries are struggling to actually secure fuel, while others are bearing the burden of soaring energy prices. As a result, concerns are mounting over whether sufficient and stable power for cooling can be secured when the heatwave arrives.
According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), as of the end of May, 109 countries had introduced energy crisis response measures. These include vehicle operation or mobility restrictions and energy consumption reduction measures. South Korea, which is implementing an alternate-day vehicle operation system, is among them. Emergency energy response measures are spreading faster than before.
Let's take a look at South Asia, considered the hardest hit by the heatwave. India, Bangladesh, and Pakistan, which depend heavily on the Middle East for a substantial portion of their energy imports, have seen energy procurement burdens increase significantly since the Strait of Hormuz blockade. With rising international LNG prices compounded by supply uncertainty, fuel procurement costs have surged, and some countries are even struggling to secure actual volumes. As a result, emergency measures such as remote work and bans on overseas travel by civil servants are being maintained. The Bangladeshi government has reportedly prohibited cooling temperatures from being set below 25 degrees Celsius.
In this situation, the heatwave has triggered a full-blown emergency. Pakistan and Bangladesh, which have a high share of LNG and oil in their power generation mix, are directly exposed to Middle East supply instability and rising international LNG prices, expanding their power procurement burden. India, with coal accounting for more than 70% of power generation, has relatively stable baseload supply, but the constraint lies in the flexible power sources needed to supplement it during peak demand. According to Indian outlet Outlook Business, large-scale blackouts are occurring across India as peak power demand instances increase due to the heatwave. Combined with aging transmission and distribution infrastructure, power supply capacity is failing to keep pace with demand growth. Outlook Business commented that "cooling demand, rather than economic growth forecasts, is emerging as the key variable determining India's power demand."
Korea Faces 'Price Shock' Rather Than Blackout Risk
This is not just an emerging-market problem. In developed Japan, warning signs of power shortages are also growing louder. With Japan's LNG-fired generation dependence at roughly 30%, the Strait of Hormuz blockade is making the situation worse. The Japanese government has officially stated that it can secure stable power reserve margins this summer. However, on the price front — that is, electricity rates — the impact of the Middle East energy crisis has already materialized. Nine of Japan's 10 major electric utilities have decided to raise household electricity rates by up to 91 yen starting in June. The four major city gas companies have also announced gas rate hikes of 20 to 24 yen. The Japanese government plans to ease consumer burdens partially by reinstating electricity and gas subsidies during July through September, when cooling demand peaks.
The next question is probably "What about Korea?" At last month's Korea-Japan summit, Korea agreed to significantly expand LNG and crude oil swap (mutual lending) cooperation with Japan. Since Korea also relies on LNG as a flexible power source to respond to surging power demand, it has moved to secure LNG volumes. The biggest difference between Korea and Japan is the share of nuclear power, which reaches 30% in Korea. Nuclear power serves as a pillar of power stability.
However, Korea is not free from the price crisis. Domestic power-generation gas rates have also risen by nearly 20% over the past three months during the U.S.-Iran war. As LNG-fired generation serves as the benchmark power source determining the System Marginal Price (SMP), pressure to raise electricity rates has grown. Yet the government has frozen public utility rates, including electricity, in the first half of this year. The vicious cycle in which Korea Electric Power Corp.'s financial burden grows under a structure that fails to reflect higher fuel costs in electricity rates in a timely manner has been raised repeatedly. As domestic electricity rates are a sharply contested issue, we will address them separately in a future article.
'Cooling Is Energy Security'
In summary, this episode shows that energy security and climate change response are no longer separate issues. A vicious cycle has emerged in which heatwaves push up power demand, while energy supply instability erodes cooling capacity. It signals that an era in which climate change and geopolitical shocks amplify each other has begun in earnest. Countries appear to be facing a test this summer of how effectively they can respond to such a compound crisis.
There is another important implication. Cooling is essentially an emergency measure for "adapting" to the immediate climate crisis of extreme heat. At the same time, the power sector that supplies cooling lies at the very heart of any conversation about greenhouse gas "mitigation." The structural dilemma between mitigation and adaptation — the two pillars of climate change response — is laid bare precisely in cooling. So should we give up cooling to reduce greenhouse gas emissions? In the next article, we will take the opportunity to think more deeply about climate change adaptation and mitigation.
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