Belgium, the world's largest exporter of frozen french fries, is facing a potato inventory crisis despite reaping its largest harvest in eight years.
Spot prices for processing potatoes used in french fries in Belgium have remained at 0 euros per ton for months, the New York Times reported Tuesday. Just three years ago, the same potatoes traded at 600 euros (about 1 million won) per ton, meaning their value has effectively disappeared.
The crisis stems from a record harvest. Across Europe, an estimated 5 million tons of surplus potatoes for french fry production were grown this year. Thanks to favorable weather, Belgium recorded its largest harvest in eight years, but demand failed to keep pace, deepening the oversupply.
Belgian farmer Chris Dehaer ultimately had to dump 1,000 tons of potatoes stockpiled in his warehouse onto his fields. "Including soil, seedlings, fertilizer and labor, I lost about 160,000 euros (about 280 million won)," he said. "I had to spend all of my savings."
The situation is similar in Germany, where some farms have distributed 4,000 tons of unsold potatoes for free. Locals have dubbed the situation "Kartoffelflut," or "potato flood."
Belgium is often called the home of french fries, and the potato industry holds significant weight in its economy. According to European Union statistics, Belgium exported about $3.3 billion (about 4.6 trillion won) worth of cooked and frozen potato products last year, roughly triple the figure from a decade ago. However, industry observers say it will be difficult to sustain the past pace of growth.
International developments have also contributed to the inventory buildup. The Trump administration's tariff policies have hit European frozen french fry exports. According to the trade publication World Potato Markets, EU frozen french fry exports to the U.S. fell 8% over the year starting in late February of last year.
The U.S. is the second-largest market for European french fries after the United Kingdom. As price competitiveness weakened, export volumes declined.
The third-largest market, Saudi Arabia, is also struggling. Exports there fell 11% during the same period, and industry watchers believe the decline has widened further since the recent Iran war.
The Iran war has placed additional strain on the french fry industry as a whole. Frozen french fries require refrigeration throughout production, storage and transportation. As tensions in the Middle East rose, energy prices climbed, leading to higher costs for cold storage and logistics.
Christophe Vermeulen, CEO of Belgapom, the Belgian potato processing association, told the NYT, "The Iran war is the most recent blow weighing on the frozen french fry supply chain."
Shifting consumer eating habits are another burden on the potato industry. In the U.S. and Europe, health-conscious consumers are increasingly choosing salads and healthier snacks over fried foods like french fries.
The spread of GLP-1 obesity drugs such as Ozempic and Wegovy has emerged as a new variable. These medications suppress appetite and are known to reduce cravings for high-calorie processed foods like french fries and potato chips.
In the U.S., an estimated one in eight adults already uses a GLP-1 drug.
As a result, growth in the global frozen french fry market is slowing. According to World Potato Markets, global demand for frozen french fries continues to rise, but the average annual growth rate has recently fallen to about 2.5%, half the roughly 5% rate seen about five years ago.
