The Trump administration is reviewing military response scenarios in preparation for the possible collapse of Cuba's regime as early as this summer, according to a report.
U.S. online news outlet Axios reported on Saturday, citing administration officials, that "the Trump administration is preparing for the possible collapse of the Cuban system as early as this summer and is also reviewing the possibility of military operations." According to the officials, Cuba's economy is paralyzed by U.S. sanctions, and its energy supply has been cut off.
"The weather is getting hotter, but people can't use electricity," one source said. "Without refrigeration, food spoils and people eventually get angry. They could take to the streets. Then no one knows what will happen." The source recalled the massive anti-government protests that erupted in Cuba in July 2021, the largest in decades. Smaller anti-government protests have continued across Cuba this year as well.
President Donald Trump and his cabinet members have argued that "Cuba is already a failed state and will collapse on its own, and the United States will liberate and take over Cuba." Trump has also repeatedly said that "Cuba is the next target after Iran."
The United States has been gradually ratcheting up pressure on Cuba. In addition to tightening the embargo, Washington earlier this month moved to sanction GAESA, Cuba's key state-owned enterprise, and foreign companies that do business with it. The sister of GAESA's chief executive was also arrested. GAESA is a military-industrial conglomerate founded 30 years ago by Raul Castro, the former Communist Party general secretary and the regime's behind-the-scenes power broker, and serves as a financial lifeline for the Cuban government. The United States has indicted Raul Castro, threatening his personal safety as well.
One Trump aide described the pressure on Cuba as "classic Trump," saying it involves "applying pressure to throw the enemy off balance, watching the reaction, and then ratcheting up the pressure further." A senior official argued that Trump is pacing himself on Cuba in order to focus on negotiations to end the conflict with Iran. The official predicted that Trump would apply phased pressure to slowly suffocate the Cuban regime.
When asked by reporters on the 20th how much longer the embargo against Cuba would remain in place, Trump replied, "There will be an announcement soon," adding, "That place is falling apart. They (the Cuban regime) have lost control."
The United States is reported to have recently conducted a joint inter-agency "war simulation" (war game) led by Southern Command, hypothesizing a scenario in which Cuba falls into unrest from a popular uprising. One senior official told Axios, "Everything is on the table. No invasion is planned or imminent (at this point)," but added, "If the president says 'go,' we are ready for anything."
As news of an imminent U.S. threat spread, Cuban state media recently reported on civilians receiving military training as part of the "war of all the people" concept envisioned by revolutionary leader Fidel Castro. The concept calls for Cubans armed by the government to wage guerrilla warfare in a war of attrition against foreign invaders, similar to the guerrilla tactics of the Vietnam War era.
