The Japanese government has drafted a revised disaster response plan aimed at cutting the projected death toll from a major earthquake directly beneath the Tokyo metropolitan area by more than half within the next decade.
According to Kyodo News on the 30th, Japan's government presented the goal of reducing the estimated death toll of up to about 18,000 by more than half within the next 10 years through a revised "Basic Plan for Promoting Emergency Measures" against an earthquake directly beneath the capital. A "capital direct earthquake" refers to a large-scale quake occurring directly beneath the metropolitan area including Tokyo, and the Japanese government estimates the probability of occurrence within the next 30 years at 70%.
The revision marks the first update in 10 years since 2015 and reflects the latest damage estimates released in December last year. The Japanese government, viewing casualties from building fires as particularly severe, has put the expanded distribution of "seismic circuit breakers" — devices that automatically cut off electricity when an earthquake is detected — at the center of its measures. The plan calls for raising the installation rate from the current level of about 20% to what amounts to full nationwide adoption. According to government estimates, if the seismic circuit breaker adoption rate reaches 100%, the number of buildings lost to fire could be reduced by about 70% from roughly 402,000.
The death toll reduction target was also raised from the previous "roughly halving" to "more than half." Along with strengthened fire prevention measures, related steps reflecting changes in the social environment, such as diversifying means of information delivery, will also be supplemented.
The revised plan also includes a focus on disaster prevention measures concentrated on the "emergency response zone" comprising Tokyo and nine surrounding prefectures. Individual-level preparations include securing furniture indoors and stockpiling at least three days' worth of food and drinking water. The revised plan is expected to be finalized as early as next month following a Cabinet decision.
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