The Iran war, now in its 91st day, has reached its biggest turning point. After repeated breakdowns, a ceasefire plan between the United States and Iran has come to the brink of a dramatic agreement. But U.S. President Donald Trump, who had repeatedly declared and then reversed claims that "an end to the Iran war is imminent," is taking a cautious approach this time by asking for "time to think." Analysts say the move reflects an awareness of objections from Middle Eastern allies to the negotiation plan and the voices of Iran hardliners within the United States.
Iran's position as revealed so far remains unchanged, so even if this first-round negotiation plan is concluded, the second round of negotiations—which must address the enriched uranium issue within 60 days—is also expected to face obstacles.
According to U.S. outlet Axios on the 28th (local time), President Trump was reported to have said he needs a few more days on the ceasefire plan. He is leaning toward signing the agreement but has still not made a decision.
U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance told Axios that the United States and Iran are "very close" to signing a memorandum of understanding (MOU) that would extend the ceasefire by 60 days, reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and launch negotiations to limit Iran's nuclear program. However, Vice President Vance said, "I hope we get to a place where the president can approve the deal, but it's still undecided."
Behind President Trump's deepening dilemma are objections from Middle Eastern allies and hardliners within the United States. President Trump is known to have shared the contents of the MOU with Iran with allies on the 28th. Among the allies, Israel's opposition is expected to be the strongest.
Another reason Trump has delayed approval is the anxiety that Iran could break its promise. A U.S. government official told Axios that Trump delayed approval "to confirm whether the Iranian side, having said it would sign, would not reverse its position." In fact, the MOU revealed this time has a considerable gap from the ceasefire plan Iran has argued for. Iran has drawn a line against speculation of an imminent agreement, saying it "has not reached a final agreement."
The New York Times (NYT) pointed out that "both sides have significantly narrowed their differences but still have many disagreements," adding that "because the negotiations are being conducted indirectly through Pakistan and Qatar, it is unclear whether the two sides are even discussing the same agreement text."
A diplomatic source familiar with the negotiations told the NYT that the draft agreement calls for halting hostilities and conducting negotiations for an initial 60 days while leaving open the possibility of an extension. Iran, on the other hand, claims the text includes a "declaration of an end to the war" on all fronts, including Lebanon, during the negotiation period.
The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz also remains a key issue. The United States interprets the deal as the strait being reopened immediately, but with the U.S. naval blockade being eased in phases. Iran, on the other hand, has stated that the U.S. naval blockade would be lifted within 30 days. The Iranian negotiating team is demanding a system overhaul that would allow toll charges on passage through the Strait of Hormuz, and some U.S. negotiators have proposed addressing such issues in the second round of negotiations.
Ebrahim Rezai, spokesperson for the Iranian parliament's Committee on National Security and Foreign Policy, who is classified as an ultra-hardliner, stressed on the 29th on his X (formerly Twitter) that tolls should not be conceded. "Iran's control over the Strait of Hormuz is firmly established worldwide," he wrote. "Countries are requesting (Iran's) permission, paying transit fees, and ships are passing under the guidance of the Revolutionary Guard Navy."
Even if agreement is reached on all parts, the enriched uranium issue remains a challenge. When the matter of disposing of Iran's 440 kilograms of uranium stockpile and 10 tons of low-enriched nuclear material is later put on the table, another fierce debate is expected to erupt. President Trump said on social networking services (SNS) on the 26th that dilution or transfer to a third country under the supervision of international inspectors would be acceptable, but on the 27th he reversed course, saying, "It is unacceptable for Russia or China to take it." However, Jalal Dehghani Firouzabadi, secretary-general of Iran's Strategic Council on Foreign Relations, argued the same day that China should become a guarantor country for the agreement between the United States and Iran.
U.S. government officials warned, "If it is judged in the negotiations that Iran is incapable of implementing the nuclear issue, Trump will review all options, including economic and military means." They added that the withdrawal of U.S. forces deployed in the Middle East would take place after a final agreement.
Though the embers remain, the stock market for now placed weight on a deal. As of 9:34 a.m. on the 29th on the New York Stock Exchange, the Dow Jones Industrial Average stood at 50,796.56, up 127.59 points (0.25%) from the previous session. The Standard & Poor's (S&P) 500 index rose 16.84 points (0.22%) to 7,580.47, and the Nasdaq Composite Index gained 49.64 points (0.18%) to 26,967.11.
However, international oil prices were mixed. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures fell 1.87% from the previous day to $87.24 a barrel in early trading on the 29th, and Brent crude dropped 1.79% to $92.03. Dubai crude, however, rose 0.41% to $102.55.
