Prediction market platforms are emerging as a new epicenter of gambling addiction among young people in the United States. As addiction cases surge primarily among men aged 18 to 30, experts warn the situation has reached the level of a public health crisis.
According to CNN on the 28th (local time), prediction markets are structured to allow betting on the outcomes of various events such as elections, sports, and finance. Under US law, they are classified the same as ordinary financial derivatives and fall under the jurisdiction of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
Unlike casinos and sports betting, which mostly require users to be 21 or older, prediction markets are accessible from age 18. Critics say the industry is actively exploiting this regulatory gap. Kalshi attracted young users by packaging its platform as a "money hack" and "side hustle" in its advertising. Polymarket also used a video of influencer Logan Paul skydiving in its advertisements.
The market has expanded explosively. As of March 2026, Kalshi's weekly trading volume exceeded $3 billion. That is about 30 times the figure from the same period a year earlier (roughly $100 million).
Experts warn that young people are structurally more vulnerable, given that the brain's impulse control function is not fully developed until age 25. Stephanie Goodman, executive director of the Robert Hunter International Problem Gambling Center, noted that gambling addiction cases among men aged 18 to 30 are increasing, and that prediction market platforms lack the addiction prevention safeguards that established gambling companies have.
Legal disputes are also intensifying. Kalshi is currently embroiled in 19 federal lawsuits. State gambling commissions and eight Native American tribes argue it operates unlicensed sports gambling, Kalshi has filed six countersuits against state regulators, and five individuals have filed lawsuits citing harm from gambling addiction. Four of these are seeking class action status.
The Massachusetts Attorney General also filed a civil lawsuit, alleging that Kalshi processed more than 3.4 million unlicensed sports bets totaling over $1 billion in the first half of 2025 alone.
Legislative pressure is also mounting. Senator Kirsten Gillibrand (D-New York) and Senator Dave McCormick (R-Pennsylvania) introduced the "Prediction Market Act of 2026," which mandates self-exclusion programs and strengthens age verification. The NBA and PGA Tour also sent letters to the CFTC, urging that the betting age for prediction markets be raised to 21, the same as for casinos and sports betting.
Coleman Strumpf, a professor at Wake Forest University, said, "This is an issue that must ultimately be decided by the Supreme Court, and further by Congress."
Supreme Court: Predicting Sports Games With Convertible Game Currency Constitutes Gambling
