With negotiations between the United States and Iran failing to reach an agreement, U.S. President Donald Trump and his inner circle are focusing on reshaping the murky negotiation phase into a political narrative favorable to themselves.
The Hill, a U.S. political news outlet, reported on the 28th (local time) that "a framing war is unfolding over who appears to hold the upper hand regarding the possibility of an agreement to end the Iran war." The outlet diagnosed that "the Trump administration's emphasis on diplomatic achievements, skepticism from the opposition party and mainstream media, and criticism from hardliners within the Republican Party are colliding simultaneously."
President Trump has maintained a hardline stance, saying "negotiations are proceeding smoothly" while also stating, "If it's not a perfect deal, there will be no deal at all." This also implies that if he announces an agreement, it will by definition be a perfect deal. At the same time, through social media (SNS), he revealed an attempt to preemptively neutralize critical public opinion about the negotiation outcome, saying, "Even if Iran is defeated, the media will package it as an 'Iranian victory.'" The Hill analyzed this as "reflecting President Trump's political intent to convert the war phase into a diplomatic achievement."
However, as the uncertainty of the war prolongs, pressure on diplomatic plans is also mounting. With Iran maintaining its influence over the Strait of Hormuz, international oil prices have risen, which is spreading into domestic price pressures and economic discontent in the United States. For the Republican Party, with the November midterm elections approaching, this is bound to become a political burden.
Cracks within the Republican Party are also evident. Senator Lindsey Graham, one of President Trump's closest allies, criticized that an agreement acknowledging Iran's control over the strait could undermine the legitimacy of the war. Hardliners including Senators Ted Cruz and Roger Wicker also raised concerns about the possibility of preserving nuclear enrichment capabilities and lifting asset freezes, warning that "an excessively conciliatory agreement would be a disaster." On the other hand, some, including Senator Rand Paul, are backing the necessity of negotiations in support of President Trump's "America First" stance. Conscious of such criticism within the party, President Trump is focusing on highlighting the strength and effectiveness of the agreement by emphasizing issues such as the disposal of Iran's enriched uranium.
Experts view the current discussions as closer to an early framework at the level of a memorandum of understanding (MOU) rather than a final agreement. Aaron David Miller, senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and a Middle East negotiations expert, assessed that "President Trump wants a political victory, but his actual leverage on core issues such as the uranium question and control of the Strait of Hormuz is limited." He added, "The structure in which war and negotiations are proceeding simultaneously is making each camp's victory narrative even more complex." Negar Mortazavi, senior fellow at the Center for International Policy, also diagnosed, "The current rhetorical competition is mostly domestic political messaging," adding, "Ultimately, both the United States and Iran are trapped in a structure where they have no choice but to accept a certain level of compromise rather than a one-sided victory by either party."
Will Trump draw his sword against Iran? A complete summary of the tense Middle East situation #InternationalNews #Trump #Iran #OilPrices #Economy
