One-quarter of the $3 trillion worth of manufactured goods the United States imports each year are "Achilles' heel" items that threaten national security, and bringing their production onshore would require $2 trillion (about 3,004 trillion won), according to a new analysis. The figure equals 6% of U.S. GDP and roughly two years of the country's annual defense budget.
According to U.S. online media outlet Axios on Friday, global consulting firm McKinsey estimated in a recent report that this amount of capital would be needed for the United States to build the industrial capacity to replace imports of critical strategic items. The estimate excludes investment in workforce training, infrastructure, and energy supply.
The "Achilles' heel" items identified by McKinsey are those essential to national security, those with supply chains concentrated in specific countries, or those imported from geopolitical rivals. U.S. manufacturing capacity was found to be most vulnerable in advanced electronics, including artificial intelligence (AI) servers, and in critical chemicals.
McKinsey calculated a "ramp-up index" for dozens of product categories, an indicator showing how much new industrial capacity would need to be built to fully replace foreign imports. Textiles and apparel were found to have severely inadequate domestic capacity, while fossil fuels and transportation equipment were in relatively better shape.
Foreign direct investment (FDI) in the United States has been surging. The 2022 CHIPS Act and similar measures have also expanded domestic production capacity in key industries. The Donald Trump administration is likewise pursuing reindustrialization as a top priority. However, McKinsey noted that the United States would still be unable to absorb the shock if trade with China and other major partners were to be further severed.
"There are areas where capital expenditure by big tech companies in AI-related fields has increased dramatically, but it's not a massive increase overall," said Shubham Singhal, a researcher at the McKinsey Global Institute. "AI-related fields have moved quickly because investors believe there will be a payoff."
McKinsey projected that the impact of investment would be maximized only when capital spending is accompanied by workforce development and infrastructure construction. The firm also forecast that if global conflicts or trade disruptions block supply chains in the future, securing replacement capacity in a short period would not be easy.
