Concerns are mounting in Europe over the possibility that Russia could expand its war beyond Ukraine. With the Ukrainian front locked in a stalemate, fears are growing that Russian President Vladimir Putin could provoke NATO member states in an attempt to shift the course of the war.
According to The Wall Street Journal on Thursday, Russia has recently raised the level of its threats against the three Baltic states — Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia — and Nordic countries. Moscow has claimed that Latvia is supporting Ukraine's drone operations and threatened to strike "decision-making centers." In Lithuania, air raid alerts were issued over a Russian drone presumed to have been launched from Belarus, prompting the evacuation of the president and prime minister. The Russian Defense Ministry also disclosed the addresses of companies in eight European countries believed to be cooperating in Ukrainian drone production. Russia warned that "if support for Ukraine is not halted, there could be unpredictable consequences and a sharp deterioration of the situation."
European security officials are concerned that Russia could carry out limited attacks targeting Baltic coastal states, Swedish or Danish islands in the Baltic Sea, or NATO territories within the Arctic Circle. The aim could be to test the West's willingness to respond and the cohesion of NATO. Analysts say U.S. President Donald Trump's threats to withdraw from NATO and moves to reduce U.S. troop levels in Europe could increase the likelihood of a miscalculation by Putin. Energy shocks and inflationary pressures in Europe stemming from the Iran war, along with the resulting rise of far-right forces, could also create a favorable environment for Russia. However, no military signs that Russia is actually preparing an attack on Europe have yet been detected.
Western intelligence agencies believe Russia is feeling the strain of sustaining the war in Ukraine over the long term. The Russian military is losing approximately 35,000 troops each month, and the pace of recruitment is assessed as failing to keep up. After conscripting 300,000 people in 2022, Russia has not issued additional forced mobilization orders. However, observers say that if a large-scale mobilization becomes necessary to continue the war, Moscow could choose to escalate as a way to justify it.
"If you only declare mobilization for this war, you are essentially signaling that you are not actually winning the war," Kaja Kallas, the European Union's High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, said. "There may come a point when you have to escalate in order to justify the mobilization. That is a very dangerous moment." She warned, "No one can know what is in Putin's head, but it could be the calculation to change the course of the war."
Oleksandr Danylyuk, head of Ukraine's Center for Defense Reforms, also said Russia could ultimately opt for escalation under the pressure of resource depletion. Even without actually using nuclear weapons, Putin could pursue "vertical escalation" by raising the level of nuclear threats and violence, or attempt "horizontal escalation" by expanding the geographic scope of the front to end the war on more favorable terms, he said. Europe believes that while Russia is facing tactical difficulties, it has not abandoned its strategic goals of seizing Ukraine and reshaping Europe's security order.
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