Polymarket, the prediction market platform that gained fame for accurately forecasting Donald Trump's election victory, has been blocked in Indonesia. The Indonesian government effectively classified the platform as "online political gambling" and cut off access after bets emerged on the possibility of the country's president stepping down early.
According to Bloomberg and the Associated Press on Tuesday (local time), Indonesia's Ministry of Communication and Digital Affairs said it had blocked domestic access to Polymarket as part of a crackdown on online gambling.
The trigger was a series of bets concerning Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto. Polymarket recently hosted wagers on the question, "When will President Prabowo step down early?" with options spanning the end of this month, the end of next month, and December. Prabowo took office in October last year, with his term running through 2029.
The Indonesian government explained that "Polymarket includes betting and speculative activity on events whose outcomes have not been determined, which qualifies as online gambling under domestic law." Authorities added that they are "tracking and investigating social media accounts related to Polymarket."
What Is Polymarket, the Site That Called Trump's Victory?
Polymarket is a "prediction market" platform where users place money on the outcomes of real-world events such as elections, interest rates, wars, sports and corporate events. Users buy and sell the probability of specific outcomes for questions like "Who will win the election?", "Will the Federal Reserve cut rates?" and "Will war break out?" Prices on the platform effectively function as the market's expected probabilities.
The platform has drawn particular attention because, unlike conventional sports betting, it covers political, economic and financial issues. During last year's U.S. presidential election, Polymarket's odds on Donald Trump's victory moved faster than major opinion polls, drawing attention from Wall Street and the media.
Polymarket is a cryptocurrency-based platform operating on the stablecoin USDC. Built on blockchain technology, it offers strong global accessibility and a high degree of anonymity.
By contrast, rival Kalshi is closer to a regulated, mainstream platform overseen by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). It allows trading based on dollars and bank accounts, earning the nickname "Wall Street-style prediction market."
OpenAI, Anthropic Join the List: "Betting on AI Company Valuations"
Polymarket has recently expanded beyond political events into the AI corporate market. CNBC reported on the 19th (local time) that Polymarket has begun offering prediction market trading on the valuations and IPO timing of unlisted AI companies such as OpenAI and Anthropic.
Contracts on the platform include "Will OpenAI go public with a market capitalization of $1 trillion before 2027?", "Will Anthropic's valuation exceed $500 billion in 2026?" and "Will Anthropic's valuation overtake OpenAI's?" These contracts are seen as reflecting the surging investor appetite for unlisted AI companies, which retail investors typically struggle to access. Unicorns such as OpenAI and Anthropic command enormous valuations even before going public, but direct investment is difficult for ordinary investors.
However, trading on Polymarket does not involve buying actual shares but rather betting on whether specific events will occur. No voting rights or equity stakes are conferred.
Pushing Into Japan as Korean Interest Surges
Polymarket has also been accelerating its expansion in Asian markets.
Bloomberg reported on the 22nd that Polymarket had appointed a local representative in Japan and was preparing to seek approval from the Japanese government to operate a prediction market. The company is reportedly aiming to secure formal service approval in Japan by 2030. Japan currently maintains strict gambling regulations, and Polymarket's official services are blocked there. Still, interest is growing rapidly, with the company's Japanese-language X (formerly Twitter) account already exceeding 50,000 followers.
The situation in Korea is similar. Many observers say prediction markets occupy a "gray area" between gambling and financial products under Korean law. Even so, more than 160 Korea-related contracts have been listed on Polymarket, including markets on the Bank of Korea's base rate, North Korea geopolitical risks, K-pop and e-sports. Industry watchers say the share of users from Asia, including Korea and Japan, has been growing quickly.
"A New Information Market, or Political Gambling?"
As prediction markets grow, regulatory disputes are intensifying. Singapore and Brazil have banned prediction market services, while China, Japan, Taiwan and Thailand have imposed access restrictions. Concerns over the misuse of insider information have also grown as political and military events become tradable contracts.
In the United States, suspicions have surfaced that members of the military and government officials may have used inside information. The U.S. Department of Justice and the CFTC have reportedly demanded that Polymarket and Kalshi submit information related to bets on political and military events involving Iran and Venezuela.
Earlier this year, a U.S. Army Special Forces soldier who participated in operations related to Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro was indicted on charges of using classified information to earn approximately $400,000 (about 600 million won) on Polymarket.
