The United States and Iran are close to signing a memorandum of understanding (MOU) to extend their ceasefire by 60 days and conduct nuclear negotiations during that period, according to reports. The two sides aim to defer sensitive nuclear talks and prioritize economic issues directly tied to global supply chains. However, Washington and Tehran remain divided over free passage through the Strait of Hormuz, a gap that could become a key variable in any final agreement.
According to Reuters on Tuesday, Iran's FARS news agency reported that a draft of the potential MOU between the United States and Iran stipulates that the United States and its allies will not attack Iran and its allies. FARS also reported that, in return, Iran has pledged not to launch any preemptive military strikes against the United States and its allies.
Earlier, US online outlet Axios reported that the United States and Iran were close to signing an MOU centered on a 60-day ceasefire extension, the opening of the Strait of Hormuz, and nuclear negotiations. The two countries reportedly discussed a plan to proceed through the opening of the Strait of Hormuz and the lifting of Iran's blockade, followed by additional negotiations on halting uranium enrichment, disposing of highly enriched uranium, and easing sanctions.
While the two sides appear to be inching toward agreement, their conflicting positions on free passage through the Strait of Hormuz — a focal point of global attention — are raising concerns. According to the Axios report on Monday, under the draft US-Iran agreement, Iran would open the Strait of Hormuz to all vessels without tolls during the 60-day ceasefire period. However, FARS reported on Tuesday that, if the agreement is signed, management of the Strait of Hormuz will fall under the sole authority and discretion of the Islamic Republic of Iran.
Even if a 60-day peace agreement is reached, the path to a permanent peace agreement remains thorny, primarily because of the enriched uranium issue, on which the two sides are most sharply at odds. According to two anonymous US government officials cited by The New York Times, Iran has committed to abandoning its stockpile of highly enriched uranium, which is one of the core elements of the draft agreement. However, three senior Iranian government officials told the NYT that the draft agreement contains no specific details on what to do with Iran's nuclear program, and includes only general language stating that all nuclear issues will be discussed within 30 to 60 days. Iran's current stockpile of 60 percent enriched uranium, considered "near weapons-grade," is reported to total 440 kilograms. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, who succeeded to power earlier this year, has taken a firm stance that he cannot allow this material to be moved outside Iran, making the matter difficult to resolve.
Moreover, a significant portion of this near-weapons-grade stockpile is located at the underground Isfahan nuclear facility, which was recently bombed by the United States and others. As a result, even the physical process of entering the facility buried under debris to locate and verify the material is no easy task. For this reason, the prevailing view is that even if the MOU is signed, reaching a final nuclear agreement within 60 days is practically impossible. However, around the time the 60-day deadline expires, the two sides may continue to extend the MOU by mutual consent, allowing what amounts to a "long-term interim agreement" to persist for some time as both parties seek to avoid catastrophe.
With a permanent peace agreement still elusive, global energy markets remain unable to shake their unease, and oil prices are holding above $100 per barrel.
