Saudi Arabia, widely regarded as the de facto leader of the Gulf states, secretly conducted multiple attacks against Iran, while Kuwait arrested members of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), according to recent reports. With more Gulf states joining the United Arab Emirates (UAE), which has territorial disputes with Iran, in taking a hostile stance against Tehran, concerns are growing that the conflict front could widen further if airstrikes resume.
Reuters reported Thursday, citing sources, that the Saudi Air Force conducted several undisclosed retaliatory airstrikes against Iran in late March.
Earlier, after Iran attacked Saudi Arabia, Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud warned on March 19 that "Saudi Arabia reserves the right to take military action if necessary." However, this is the first time it has been confirmed that Saudi Arabia actually followed through with military action.
The Saudi attack on Iran, coming from the leading Sunni Muslim nation, signals a shift in direction for Gulf states that had previously restrained military solutions. Since the U.S.-Israeli airstrikes, Iran has attacked the six member states of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) with missiles and drones. Should the ceasefire negotiations collapse and Iran's attacks resume, Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states could directly respond to Iran. Kuwait announced it had arrested four IRGC members who had entered its territorial waters, while Bahrain arrested 41 people in connection with an IRGC-linked espionage case.
Among these nations, the UAE has taken the hardest line. The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported the previous day that the UAE carried out a military strike on Iran's Lavan Island oil refining facilities in early last month. The UAE has also pursued a hardline diplomatic stance, withdrawing from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and supporting a U.S.-led United Nations resolution on keeping the Strait of Hormuz open. Disputes have persisted since 1971, when the UAE lost Abu Musa, Greater Tunb, and Lesser Tunb—originally its own territory—to Iran by force.
As a result, analysts say the likelihood has grown that Iran could directly target some hostile Gulf states, such as the UAE, if the ceasefire collapses. British newspaper The Guardian assessed Thursday that "if the ceasefire is broken and the United States and Iran clash again, the UAE could become a major target for Iran." While U.S. President Donald Trump has repeatedly said that Iran's military has been destroyed, The New York Times (NYT) reported Thursday that U.S. intelligence agencies assess that 30 of Iran's 33 missile bases near the Strait of Hormuz have been restored, indicating that Iran's military capabilities remain intact.
