US President Donald Trump put the odds of the Iran ceasefire holding at "1%," raising the likelihood of renewed military action. Iran, in turn, has warned it could manufacture a nuclear bomb if the US resumes attacks, intensifying tensions on both sides.
Meeting reporters at the White House on Tuesday local time, Trump described the ceasefire with Iran as "incredibly weak." He added that the truce was "on life support, and the doctor says there is about a 1% chance."
Trump dismissed Iran's proposal as a "piece of garbage," saying he "didn't even read all of it." He also claimed Iran had reversed its commitment to hand over its highly enriched uranium to the US. In an interview with Fox News the same day, he said he was reviewing a relaunch of the suspended "Project Freedom."
US online outlet Axios reported that Trump convened his national security team that day to discuss resuming military action. The meeting was expected to include Vice President J.D. Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Secretary of Defense (Department of War) Pete Hegseth, and Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Dan Caine. Israeli media reported that Trump wants to deploy special forces to secure Iran's highly enriched uranium stockpile but is hesitating at the last minute due to the high risk of the operation.
Iran has signaled a hard-line response. Ebrahim Rezaei, spokesperson for the National Security and Foreign Policy Committee of Iran's parliament (Majlis), said on his X (formerly Twitter) account that "one of Iran's options when attacks (on Iran) resume is 90% enrichment, and parliament is reviewing this option."
Iran currently holds approximately 440 kilograms of uranium enriched to 60%. Uranium enriched to 90% is highly enriched material that can be immediately weaponized.
Mohammad Ali Jafari, former chief commander of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), also stated that "there will be no further negotiations unless Iran's demands are met." According to Bloomberg, Iran deployed small submarines that day to control the Strait of Hormuz.
Meanwhile, foreign media reported that the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Iran's longtime rival, secretly attacked Iranian oil refining facilities early last month. The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) cited anonymous sources as saying the UAE launched military strikes on Iran's Lavan Island refining facility, among others.
The attack took place in early last month, when Trump declared a ceasefire after five weeks of airstrikes. At the time, Iran's National Iranian Oil Refining and Distribution Company (NIORDC) condemned the strike, saying "the Lavan Island refining facility, which processes 55,000 barrels per day, came under a cowardly attack by the enemies," and the Iranian military retaliated with missile and drone attacks on the UAE and Kuwait. The US appears to have tacitly approved the UAE's attack. The WSJ explained that the situation surrounding the ceasefire was unstable at the time and that Washington welcomes participation in the war by Gulf states including the UAE.
The UAE has been hit by more than 2,800 missile and drone attacks from Iran since the war began. That is more than Israel, which launched the preemptive strike on Iran. As the UAE's signature "open economy model" — which has pursued growth by aggressively attracting foreign direct investment (FDI) and talent — took a hit, the country is seen as having shifted its strategy toward Iran.
The UAE's military, at 60,000 to 70,000 troops, is small but equipped with cutting-edge hardware including French Mirage and US F-16 fighter jets, enabling efficient strikes. In addition, the UAE has joined economic sanctions against Iran by denying visas to Iranian citizens and shutting down Dubai-based schools and clubs linked to Iran, positioning itself in opposition to Tehran.
