The Iran issue has emerged as the biggest variable ahead of U.S. President Donald Trump's visit to China this week. The United States plans to pressure China, citing the Iran war, to mediate ceasefire negotiations. However, with Washington and Beijing holding differing views on the Iran war, it remains uncertain whether China will accept the request. The outcome of the summit is expected to determine the direction of Korea's exports, oil prices, and inflation.
According to The Wall Street Journal on Monday (local time), the Iran issue has emerged as the biggest variable at this week's summit in Beijing between President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping. The originally scheduled summit was delayed once by U.S. and Israeli airstrikes on Iran and the subsequent blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.
U.S. officials said Trump plans to pressure China, which relies on cheap Iranian crude oil, to mediate ceasefire negotiations. Xi also wants a ceasefire, as Middle East turmoil is limiting China's oil supply and dampening demand for Chinese-made products. Analysts and U.S. officials said resolving the Iran situation could be an opportunity to elevate Xi as a "global statesman."
Senior U.S. officials emphasized that the moment the two leaders enter the meeting room, the Hormuz crisis and Iran's refusal to make nuclear concessions will become secondary issues. However, both sides are seeking their own gains on the Iran issue, with China particularly keen on preserving the current Iranian regime.
According to senior officials, the summit is expected to focus mainly on China's purchases of U.S. agricultural products, energy, and Boeing aircraft. The two countries also plan to consider establishing a "U.S.-China Trade Committee" to handle trade in non-security-related goods.
White House spokesperson Anna Kelly said in a call with reporters Sunday that "President Trump will focus on restoring America's economic independence by prioritizing the recalibration of relations with China, reciprocity, and fairness, as he has done over the past year."
U.S.-China relations are currently under rising tension. Ahead of the visit, China denied visas to some U.S. working-level officials, a measure Beijing rarely takes. Visa issuance for American journalists in China is also becoming increasingly difficult.
Trump is expected to raise China's financial support for Iran and Russia and the possibility of weapons exports. The U.S. State Department sanctioned four Chinese companies on the 8th, saying they "provided satellite imagery that enabled Iranian military attacks on U.S. forces in the Middle East."
Even if Xi wants to resolve the Iran situation, there is a wide gap between his and Trump's views on the solution. China invited Iran's foreign minister last week, a move interpreted as a gambit to highlight China-Iran ties ahead of the U.S.-China summit.
The outcome of the U.S.-China summit is expected to directly affect Korea's exports and financial markets. If China agrees to expand purchases of U.S. agricultural products and Boeing aircraft, the competitive landscape for Korean exporters could be reshaped, while a prolonged Hormuz blockade could intensify pressure on domestic oil prices and inflation.
Meanwhile, Trump is scheduled to arrive in Beijing late on the afternoon of the 13th and depart on the 15th (local time). Over two days, a bilateral summit, a visit to the Temple of Heaven, a state dinner, and a tea meeting are scheduled.
