US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping will hold a fateful US-China summit in Beijing on Nov. 14-15 local time. It marks the first visit by a US president to China in nine years. The two sides are expected to hold wide-ranging discussions covering not only economic issues such as tariffs, artificial intelligence (AI), advanced semiconductor export controls and rare earths, but also security matters including Iran, Taiwan and nuclear weapons. Experts believe both Trump, who faces midterm elections in November, and Xi, who is preparing for a fourth term next year, want a "period of strategic stability," suggesting that while a dramatic agreement may not be reached, some level of tangible results could emerge. Here are the key points to watch at the US-China summit.
① Will the Iran War Come to an End?
The biggest interest lies in whether any progress will emerge regarding an end to the US-Iran war. Trump is expected to demand that China, Iran's "backer," step in to make Tehran abandon its nuclear development program. From China's perspective, which had been importing 90% of Iran's crude oil exports, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz is a blow, and instability in the Middle East — a major export market — is also unwelcome news. Beijing may therefore demand that Iran reopen the Strait of Hormuz and come to the negotiating table.
However, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi recently met with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi in Beijing and sided with Iran, saying, "Iran has a legitimate right to the peaceful use of nuclear energy." The remark differs in tone from Washington's push for Iran to abandon its nuclear program, drawing attention to how the issue will be discussed at the summit.
② Will a US-China Trade Commission Be Launched? China's Midterm "Gift" to Trump Draws Attention
Another point to watch is whether Xi will pledge to make large-scale purchases of American soybeans, beef and Boeing aircraft ahead of the midterm elections. Securing such commitments would allow Trump to win favor with American farmers and blue-collar workers, key pillars of his support base. Remarks on China's rare earth exports are also drawing attention. When Trump sharply raised tariffs on China, Beijing responded by imposing rare earth export controls. The US may also criticize China's imports of Iranian crude oil and demand increased purchases of American energy.
Whether a US-China "Trade Commission" will be established is another focal point. US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer has stressed the need for a trade commission to systematically address trade imbalance issues, including tariffs and the designation of priority import and export items. If launched, it would mean that US-China trade would be discussed within an official framework, which is expected to reduce uncertainty to some degree.
③ Will BYD's US Investment Be Allowed? Establishment of Investment Commission Also in Focus
Spencer Feingold, senior editor at the World Economic Forum (WEF), noted that "the issue of Chinese automakers entering the US market will also be discussed," adding that "this includes the entry of major Chinese EV manufacturers such as BYD."
Indeed, Trump said at an event in January, "It's a good thing if foreign automakers build factories in the US and hire you and your friends," adding, "Let China in, let Japan in." However, with growing opposition in the US Congress to easing regulations on Chinese automakers, whether this will materialize remains uncertain.
Attention is also focused on whether an investment commission will be established to oversee bilateral investment issues. A former senior US government official recently predicted at a press briefing in Washington, DC, that "although there have long been concerns, there could also be discussions on supporting Chinese investment in the US." While concerns have been high that Chinese capital investment in the US could threaten national security, the summit could open the door for such discussions.
④ Will Trump Shift from "Does Not Support Taiwan Independence" to "Opposes" It?
On the Taiwan issue, China is expected to demand a change in the US position and restrictions on arms exports to Taiwan. In a phone call with Trump in February, Xi said, "Taiwan is the most important issue in US-China relations," and that "the matter of arms sales to Taiwan must be handled carefully." Traditionally, the US has stated that it "does not support Taiwan independence," but China may want this changed to "the US opposes Taiwan independence."
⑤ Remarks on AI, Nuclear Weapons and North Korea in Focus
The US and China are engaged in a fierce speed race in the AI field. Discussions on the safe use of AI have naturally taken a back seat, but the two sides could begin efforts to control the negative use of AI by signing working-level agreements, even if only symbolically. Kyle Chan of the Brookings Institution said, "They could start by opening official communication channels on AI risks, developing non-binding safety guidelines, and sharing limited information on AI safety incidents."
Trump has continued to stress the need for a new nuclear arms control regime that includes China, arguing that a regime with Russia alone that excludes China is meaningless, and this issue could also be discussed. The US is also expected to seek China's views on matters such as dialogue with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un.
⑥ Will There Be a US-China Joint Statement and a Pledge for Xi's Return Visit?
The US and Chinese leaders did not issue a joint statement at their Busan summit last October, with each side instead releasing its own statement on the outcome. If a joint statement is issued this time, it would suggest that the two sides reached a degree of agreement in a successful summit. With the possibility that the two leaders may meet again at the APEC summit in Shenzhen, China, in November and the G20 summit in Miami in December, attention is also focused on whether Xi will pledge to visit the United States before those gatherings.
