Three years after Japan downgraded COVID-19 to a classification on par with seasonal influenza, the country is still recording more than 30,000 deaths annually from the disease. With a new variant now spreading, experts are closely watching the possibility of a summer wave.
According to an Asahi Shimbun analysis of demographic statistics from Japan's Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare released Friday (local time), approximately 36,000 people died of COVID-19 in Japan in 2024. More than 90% of the deceased were aged 65 or older, underscoring that the disease remains fatal for the elderly and those with underlying conditions.
Experts are paying particular attention to the spread of the "BA.3.2" variant. A sublineage of BA.3, which briefly surfaced in early 2022, it is showing signs of renewed spread after an absence of about three years.
"This variant may have enhanced immune-evasion capabilities," said Atsuo Hamada, visiting professor at Tokyo Medical University. "There is no immediate reason for excessive alarm, but it could influence the spread of a summer wave, so it warrants close monitoring."
Tomoya Saito, a center head at the Japan Institute for Health Security (JIHS), said, "COVID remains dangerous for people with underlying conditions such as diabetes. During outbreak periods, it is important to follow basic preventive measures such as wearing masks and washing hands."
BA.3.2 Variant Also Spreading in Korea
The BA.3.2 variant has been nicknamed "Cicada" because its pattern of long dormancy followed by re-emergence resembles the life cycle of the insect. It has recently been spreading in 33 countries, including Japan, Korea and the United States. In Korea, the detection rate of BA.3.2 among COVID-19 cases rose from near 0% late last year to 3.3% in January, 12.2% in February and 23.1% in March.
The Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency is recommending vaccinations for high-risk groups, including those aged 65 or older and the immunocompromised, in preparation for a summer rise in cases. High-risk groups can receive COVID-19 vaccinations free of charge through June 30.
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