The United States and Iran have exchanged responses on ceasefire negotiations, but with clashes continuing in the Strait of Hormuz, a resolution remains elusive. In the gap, Russia and Qatar have stepped forward as mediators, seeking to stake out their presence. Iran has communicated with Russia in advance and turned a blind eye to Qatari liquefied natural gas (LNG) shipments, showing a positive attitude toward both countries. In contrast, the United States has been cool to Russia's mediation efforts while actively embracing Qatar's overtures, diverging from Iran's approach.
On the 10th (local time), Iran's state news agency IRNA reported, citing a source, that Iran had delivered its response to the US ceasefire proposal to Pakistan. However, the source said, "The negotiations currently underway are focused entirely on halting hostilities in the region," drawing a line against the possibility of a comprehensive agreement for now.
Earlier on the 6th, the online outlet Axios reported that the United States and Iran were close to signing a one-page memorandum of understanding (MOU) containing the broad framework for ending the war and resolving the nuclear issue. At the time, the White House demanded a response within 48 hours, but Iran had not offered a clear position. This marks the first formal response delivered. However, the specific content of what was proposed has not been disclosed.
Iran has maintained a cautious stance, citing US military action as justification. Ali Safari, an adviser to Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesperson, described the current situation in an interview with the Arab media outlet Al Mayadeen as "a process of rebuilding trust with the United States." Iran's semi-official Fars News Agency reported the same day that the Iranian military had met with Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei and received new guidelines on conducting military operations.
US President Donald Trump said in a phone interview with France's LCI broadcasting that day, "I expect we will hear news very soon," but Iran appears to be taking the opposite approach, using American impatience to its advantage. Analysts interpret this as an attempt to avoid being dragged by the US timetable and to extract as many concessions as possible.
Frustrated by Iran's stalling, the United States has combined pressure with diplomacy to urge a decision. Trump said, "It will be 'Project Freedom Plus,' meaning 'Project Freedom' with additional elements," hinting at further measures.
Military tensions in the Middle East are rising again. Iran's semi-official Fars News Agency reported the same day that sporadic clashes occurred between Iranian and US naval vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. In the United Arab Emirates (UAE), missile and drone attacks originating from Iran have caused injuries, continuing the pattern of instability. The New York Times (NYT) assessed that "with the likelihood of both sides agreeing on permanent peace terms diminishing, the regional situation has fallen into extreme uncertainty."
As the United States and Iran cautiously approach negotiations after one failed direct round of talks, Russia and Qatar have stepped up as players in the process. Russian President Vladimir Putin said at a press conference following the Victory Day military parade that day, regarding the issue of enriched uranium disposal—the biggest sticking point in US-Iran negotiations—that "Russia is prepared to take and store it." This is interpreted as a signal that Russia intends to play the role of kingmaker between the United States and Iran by again leveraging the precedent set during the 2015 Iran nuclear deal (JCPOA), when it received Iran's low-enriched uranium and stored it at its own nuclear facilities. However, Trump is reported to have already rejected such a proposal in March, and Reuters reported that he again refused during a phone call with Putin on the 30th of last month, saying, "Focus on the Ukraine war instead."
Qatar also moved quickly. Qatari Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani visited the United States and met with Vice President J.D. Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio and White House Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff. Immediately after the meeting, Rubio stressed, "There is a need to continue cooperation to deter threats across the Middle East and promote stability and security." The same day, a tanker loaded with LNG from Qatar drew attention as it passed through the Strait of Hormuz without Iranian attack for the first time since the outbreak of war. According to ship-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg, the Al Karaitiyat departed after being loaded at the Ras Laffan export terminal earlier this month and exited the strait.
Analysts say the reason the United States, unlike in 2015, has rejected Russian mediation lies in the close ties between Iran and Russia. According to the NYT, with logistics through the Persian Gulf becoming difficult since the war began, the Caspian Sea—an inland sea in northern Iran—has emerged as a new supply route for trading goods such as wheat, corn and animal feed. US authorities have been particularly wary of Russia supplying drone parts through this route. The NYT explained, "The shipment of drone parts reflects the close defense cooperation between Moscow and Tehran," adding that "while Russian-made parts are unlikely to change the course of the war, they could help Iran rapidly rebuild its drone capabilities."
