The likelihood of a U.S.-North Korea summit on the sidelines of next week's U.S.-China summit in Beijing is low, according to a former senior U.S. government official.
Kurt Campbell, who served as Deputy Secretary of State during the Joe Biden administration, said at a press briefing in Washington, D.C. on Friday that "one of the things that surprised me about President Donald Trump during the transition was how persistent he was about wanting to reach out diplomatically to North Korea." Campbell added, "President Trump is constantly looking for ways to deliver his message to North Korean leader Kim Jong-un." The Trump administration reportedly requested various pieces of intelligence on North Korea from the Biden administration during the transition, with a potential U.S.-North Korea summit in mind.
"But North Korea does not appear willing to engage in dialogue unless the United States recognizes it as a nuclear state," Campbell said. "Given that President Trump has many other matters to handle right now, I don't think the U.S. will be genuinely interested in the approach North Korea is demanding anytime soon." Campbell particularly noted that North Korea's position has been significantly strengthened compared to the time of the Hanoi summit in Vietnam. "North Korea has a much closer relationship with Russia and has further accelerated its nuclear and missile development," he said. "I'm not sure North Korea is as interested in diplomacy with the United States as it used to be."
Campbell predicted that "President Trump could seek advice from Chinese President Xi Jinping on ways to improve relations with Chairman Kim." However, he did not completely rule out the possibility of a U.S.-North Korea summit, saying, "North Korea is a very unpredictable place, so we will have to see how things develop."
A former senior U.S. government official described the U.S.-China summit scheduled for Oct. 14-15 as "being held under very awkward and unusual circumstances." Historically, it has been rare for a U.S. president to leave the country while military operations are underway, the official said. The official also noted that the working-level staff preparing for the U.S.-China summit is very small compared to other summits. "The U.S. and Chinese leaders are meeting with broad discretion, effectively freed from bureaucratic constraints," he said. "This is a rare case not seen since former U.S. President Richard Nixon met with Chinese leader Mao Zedong in 1972."
"President Trump plans to be accompanied by U.S. chief executives on his visit to China," the official said. "There hasn't been such an exchange since the 1990s. It seems President Trump wants to make commercial diplomacy his top priority." He predicted that agenda items would include whether to allow Chinese investment in the United States, working-level agreements on artificial intelligence (AI), and Taiwan.
