The mood for ending hostilities between the United States and Iran is ripening. With U.S. President Donald Trump's visit to China scheduled for Oct. 14-15 local time, both sides appear to have weakened their appetite for attacks, making further clashes unlikely for the time being. However, some observers note that lingering differences over the nuclear issue suggest a thorny path ahead before a final agreement is reached.
① The Current Situation
The United States has handed Iran a one-page, 14-point memorandum of understanding (MOU) and is awaiting a response. According to U.S. online media outlet Axios, the core of the proposal involves a gradual lifting of the blockade on the Strait of Hormuz and a temporary moratorium on Iran's uranium enrichment activities, in exchange for partial lifting of U.S. sanctions and the release of some frozen Iranian assets. The United States expects Iran's response within 24 to 48 hours, and an Iranian foreign ministry spokesperson also said Tehran is reviewing the U.S. proposal. However, Tasnim News Agency, which leans toward Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), cited an informed source as saying that "the final proposal from the U.S. side contains several unacceptable clauses."
② Will Iran Accept?
President Trump has been touting optimism day after day. At the White House on the same day, he said, "Iran should not have nuclear weapons and will not have them," adding that "they have agreed to this along with many other items." He also claimed there is a possibility of reaching an agreement with Iran before his visit to China.
In broad terms, the chances of Iran accepting the U.S. proposal appear somewhat high. Due to strengthened U.S. economic sanctions, Iran's monthly inflation rate (March 20 to April 20) reached 658% year-on-year, reflecting severe economic hardship. Also noteworthy is that China, Iran's backer, is encouraging the negotiations. Foreign Minister Wang Yi met with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi in Beijing the previous day and said, "China believes that a comprehensive ceasefire is essential and that resuming the conflict is not desirable, and we think it is particularly important to continue negotiations."
③ Are There Any Variables?
Of course, the possibility that Iran will not accept cannot be ruled out. On the same day, Trump asserted that "Iran's highly enriched uranium stockpile will be sent to the United States." From Iran's perspective, handing over its core assets to the U.S.—not a third country but an "enemy state"—is an excessive demand. It is also uncertain whether Iran's leadership can quickly reach a consensus on the U.S. proposal. Israel's actions also pose a problem. Israel carried out an airstrike on the southern suburbs of Beirut, Lebanon, on the same day. This is the first airstrike targeting the Lebanese capital since the ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon took effect.
④ If Iran Accepts, What Comes Next?
Bloomberg, citing a source, reported that if Iran accepts the MOU, specific negotiations on its nuclear program will take place afterward. The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) also reported that "talks between the U.S. and Iran could begin as early as next week in Islamabad, Pakistan." The negotiations are expected to last about a month and will cover Iran's nuclear program and the easing of sanctions. Working-level negotiations involving experts on nuclear matters are expected to take shape. However, the WSJ pointed out that differences remain over issues such as uranium enrichment limits and nuclear inspections.
