The Japanese government is moving to allow exports of lethal weapons by scrapping rules that had limited arms exports to non-combat purposes. Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, who took office last October and now enjoys an approval rating of around 70% after six months, is seen as stepping on the accelerator of Japan's rightward shift.
According to the Nikkei and other outlets, the Japanese government revised the Three Principles on Transfer of Defense Equipment and Technology and its operational guidelines on Tuesday at a Cabinet meeting and the National Security Council (NSC). The core of the revision is to abolish the export restrictions that had limited exports of finished defense equipment to five non-combat categories and to allow, in principle, the export of weapons with lethal capability. While the revision stipulates that exports must pass NSC review—attended by the prime minister, the chief cabinet secretary, the foreign minister, and the defense minister—weapons exports to countries engaged in combat have also become possible "if deemed necessary for national security." Weapons jointly developed with other countries may likewise be sold to third countries at war if judged necessary for Japan's security.
Analysts say Takaichi has completely unshackled Japan from the "pacifism" of Article 9 of the Constitution, which had been the foundation of Japan's postwar security strategy. Her political mentor, former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, began permitting defense equipment exports in 2014 but limited them to five categories; Takaichi has now removed even those constraints.
The Takaichi government is also pushing a constitutional amendment to explicitly stipulate the Self-Defense Forces in Article 9—signaling an intent to become what is known as a "war-capable nation." At the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) convention this month, Takaichi stressed, "Why shouldn't the Self-Defense Forces be written into the Constitution? Of course we must amend the Constitution."
The Self-Defense Forces' recent participation—its first ever—in Balikatan, a multinational joint exercise led by the United States and the Philippines, has drawn criticism as a signal of resurgent militarism. The Takaichi government is also moving quickly to establish a "National Intelligence Agency," a Japanese counterpart to the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency (CIA). Japanese public opinion is favorable toward constitutional amendment. In a poll of 1,006 people by the right-leaning Sankei Shimbun, 59.3% of respondents supported writing the Self-Defense Forces into the Constitution, outnumbering the 31.3% who opposed it.
The high approval rating for Takaichi serves as the springboard for the accelerating rightward shift. In the general election held this February, the LDP won an overwhelming victory, exceeding the two-thirds majority required to initiate a constitutional amendment. Despite rising public discontent over the energy crisis triggered by the U.S.-Iran war, Takaichi's approval rating averages between 50% and 60%, and an FNN survey put it at 70%. Japanese public opinion credits her with diplomatic accomplishments, including blocking a deployment to the Strait of Hormuz to the end despite strong pressure from the United States.
However, Takaichi's preference for top-down decision-making—and resulting communication gaps even with her own LDP—is an unpredictable variable. The Nikkei noted, "Unlike diplomacy, constitutional amendment cannot be driven by the Prime Minister's Office alone."
