The United States and Iran engaged in an intense maritime clash just before the ceasefire deadline set for the 21st (local time) of this month. However, U.S. President Donald Trump claimed that a broad framework for a nuclear agreement has been established, and media in mediator country Pakistan reported that the Iranian negotiating team would arrive in Islamabad, the negotiation venue, on the 21st, opening the possibility of talks.
On the 19th (local time), Iran strongly protested after it was revealed that the U.S. military had seized Iran's cargo ship "Tuska" and even used naval gunfire in the process. This is because it directly contradicts the lifting of the naval blockade, which Iran claims as a condition for the second round of negotiations. President Trump indirectly acknowledged the firing, saying that the U.S. Navy's guided-missile destroyer Spruance had "put a hole" in the engine room of the Tuska in the Gulf of Oman to stop it. The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported that while the U.S. had previously turned back more than 20 Iranian ships that had departed from Iranian ports and attempted to break through the U.S. blockade, this was the first known case of force being used.
Iran immediately retaliated by mobilizing unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) to strike U.S. warships. The Iranian military stressed that this attack was a response to the United States, stating, "If U.S. piracy and attacks continue, we will continue our military response." Whether Iran actually attacked U.S. warships has not been confirmed.
Furthermore, Iran decided not to participate in the second round of negotiations on the grounds that the U.S. is making excessive demands and repeatedly reversing its position, the state-run IRNA news agency reported. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei reaffirmed the decision not to participate on the 20th, saying, "At this time, we have no plans to participate in the second round of negotiations." Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian criticized in a phone call with Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, saying, "(The naval blockade) deepens doubts about U.S. sincerity and reveals the fact that they are trying to betray diplomacy." However, Reuters reported that Iran is positively considering attending the second round of end-of-war negotiations with the United States. Reuters said a senior Iranian official made these remarks but added that "no final decision has been made yet."
Although tensions are rising again just before the two-week ceasefire expires, both sides appear to be communicating steadily behind the scenes. In particular, mediator Pakistan appears to have stepped up persuasion efforts to bring about the ceasefire negotiations. Reuters reported that Asim Munir, Pakistan's army chief and considered the country's power broker, told President Trump in a phone call that the U.S. naval blockade of Iran is an obstacle to negotiations, to which Trump responded that he would consider it.
Ebrahim Azizi, chairman of the Iranian parliament's National Security Committee, said in an interview with Al Jazeera, "Iran has decided to continue dialogue with the United States," adding, "This does not mean we will negotiate at any cost, nor does it mean we will accept any approach from the other side." AP, citing Pakistani officials, reported that Iran expressed willingness to send a delegation to the second round of negotiations this week, and Pakistani media outlet Pakistan Observer reported that the Iranian delegation is scheduled to arrive in Islamabad on the 21st rather than the 20th. U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright, in an interview with Fox News, said, "We are very close to an agreement with Iran," adding, "Progress is greater than it appears from the outside."
President Trump, despite his wavering statements, has consistently been optimistic about the possibility of a deal. In an interview with U.S. media outlet Axios, he said, "I feel fine. The basic framework of the agreement is in place. I think the chances of completing (the negotiations) are very high." This can be interpreted as meaning that, as in the first round, differences with Iran have narrowed on the issue of highly enriched uranium processing, which is considered the biggest "red line" in the second round of negotiations as well. In this regard, Israeli media outlet Hayom, citing U.S. and Middle Eastern diplomatic sources, reported that Iran has agreed to hand over all of its enriched uranium.
There was also progress on Lebanon, which has emerged as a flashpoint in the negotiations. Lebanese President Joseph Aoun announced that day that he would engage in direct negotiations with Israel separately from the ceasefire discussions between Iran and the United States.
