As the U.S. and Iran failed to find common ground despite the looming ceasefire deadline, Iranian forces closed the Strait of Hormuz just one day after reopening it. The ceasefire between the two sides runs until the 21st (U.S. Eastern Time), and no schedule for talks has been set yet.
On the 18th (local time), Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) stated in a statement posted on its own propaganda media that "any attempt to access the Strait of Hormuz will be regarded as cooperation with the enemy and vessels will be attacked," announcing that the strait would be closed again starting that day. This came just one day after Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi declared on X (formerly Twitter) the previous day that "during the remaining ceasefire period, navigation of all merchant vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz is fully permitted." In fact, the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) received reports that day that an oil tanker and container ship heading to India were consecutively attacked near the Strait of Hormuz.
The pretext the IRGC gave for closing the strait again was the U.S. blockade of Iranian vessels and ports. According to the Wall Street Journal (WSJ), the U.S. military is preparing to seize Iran-linked vessels not only in Hormuz but on the high seas around the world to force Iran to abandon nuclear weapons. Mojtaba Khamenei, son of Iran's Supreme Leader, warned, "Just as Iran's drones strike like lightning against America and the Zionist criminals (Israel), our valiant navy is also ready to deliver new bitter defeats to our enemies."
However, Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said that day, "There has been progress in the negotiations," suggesting that dialogue with the U.S. has not been severed. Iran's Supreme National Security Council (SNSC) said, "The U.S. recently presented a new proposal through Pakistan," adding that it is under review.
In response, U.S. President Donald Trump said, "Iran is being a bit cunning," but added, "it is actually going smoothly." However, he immediately convened a White House Situation Room meeting in response to Iran's re-blockade.
Hopes for 2nd round of talks on the 20th rapidly fade
Iran is throwing the U.S. into confusion with back-and-forth statements rivaling those of President Donald Trump. Less than a day after the Iranian Foreign Minister announced the opening of the Strait of Hormuz, Iran warned of a re-blockade, citing the U.S.'s continued blockade as a pretext. President Trump, too, launched an operation to seize Iranian vessels immediately after stating that "negotiations are progressing smoothly." Both the U.S. and Iran are interpreted as trying to weaken each other's claims by pressuring that both the worst and best scenarios are possible.
According to the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) on the 19th (local time), Iran's chief negotiator, Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, said, "There has been some progress, but we are far from a final agreement." Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Saeed Khatibzadeh said in an interview with the Associated Press, "It is true that we have exchanged messages with the U.S.," but "we are not at the stage where both sides can hold direct talks." Expectations for the second round of talks in Pakistan on the 20th, which had emerged right after Iran opened the Strait of Hormuz, have faded.
Iranian Foreign Minister's "opening" remark leads to impeachment talks in Iran
The spark of conflict was a post by Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi on X (formerly Twitter) the previous day. Minister Araghchi stated, "In line with the Lebanon ceasefire framework, we fully permit the operation of all commercial vessels passing through the strait." President Trump interpreted this as "Iran's surrender" and an agreement to remove enriched uranium, provoking the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). State-run Tasnim News criticized that Minister Araghchi's remarks caused confusion without sufficient explanation, and hardline outlet Kayhan even mentioned Araghchi's impeachment.
The Iranian government explained that the remark was conditional on vessels approved by the IRGC traveling along designated routes and paying a "toll." It also declared the resumption of a full blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Speaker Ghalibaf emphasized that President Trump's announcement was false and that the opening of the strait is determined by military judgment.
President Trump repeatedly stressed that talks with Iran were progressing, right up until the blockade. Meeting reporters aboard Air Force One the previous day, he said, "Iran is saying different things about a potential agreement in consideration of domestic public opinion," and "Preventing Iran from possessing nuclear weapons is the top priority." The next day, he shared a video on Truth Social of Americans and Iranians expressing gratitude and support for his measures against Iran.
Meanwhile, Hussein al-Ezzi, an executive of Yemen's pro-Iranian Houthi rebels, said on X that day, "If Sanaa (the government the Yemeni rebels claim to be) decides to blockade Bab el-Mandeb, the entrance to the Red Sea, no force will ever be able to reopen it." Following Iran's resumption of the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, mention of blockading the Red Sea, another chokepoint, shows an expansion of influence. If the Red Sea is also blocked, a "double chokepoint" situation could arise in global logistics.
However, as soon as Iran signaled a re-blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, President Trump convened an emergency Situation Room meeting at the White House with Vice President J.D. Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Secretary of Defense (War) Pete Hegseth, and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. He said, "Iran's pressure over the Strait of Hormuz is nothing but a bluff," adding, "Iran can never threaten the U.S. with this issue." He then launched full-scale operations to seize Iran-linked vessels not only in Hormuz but on the high seas worldwide.
Revolutionary Guard warns of "escalation to World War III"
As agreement is delayed due to the tug-of-war between the two sides, the situation in Lebanon is also worsening. Israel and Lebanon said that in the 24 hours just before entering a 10-day ceasefire starting at midnight on the 17th (Lebanon time) under U.S. pressure, they killed 150 Hezbollah members and struck about 300 sites, including launchers, weapons depots, and command posts. The United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) also suffered casualties. According to AFP, a French peacekeeper conducting explosive ordnance disposal in Lebanon was hit, killing one and wounding three. A senior adviser to IRGC Commander Mohammad Reza Naqdi warned that the ongoing conflict could escalate into World War III if it continues.
The "two-week ceasefire" agreed between the U.S. and Iran for war termination negotiations ends on the 22nd U.S. Eastern Time. According to Pakistani media such as the Express Tribune and Dawn, Pakistani Justice Minister Aqeel Malik said that the government has completed preparations for the second round of talks, including security measures.
