A massive bet on falling crude prices placed just minutes before Iran announced the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz has reignited concerns over possible information leaks. The recurring pattern of perfectly timed trades ahead of major Middle East war-related announcements is raising doubts about market fairness.
$760 Million Sell-Off 20 Minutes Before Hormuz Announcement
According to Reuters on Tuesday, investors dumped 7,990 Brent crude futures contracts within a one-minute window starting at 12:24 p.m. local time. At prevailing prices, the trades were worth approximately $760 million (about 1.115 trillion won).
About 20 minutes after the trade, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi announced on the social media platform X, formerly Twitter, that "the passage of all commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz will be permitted during the ceasefire."
International oil prices plunged by as much as 11 percent intraday immediately after the announcement. As a result, investors who sold futures just before the statement were able to secure substantial profits in a short period.
Recurring 'Perfect Timing' Prompts U.S. Investigation
This is not the first instance in which large trades have been detected just ahead of major announcements related to the Middle East conflict.
Market data shows that approximately $950 million (about 1.4 trillion won) in crude oil futures sell orders were executed just before the United States and Iran announced a two-week ceasefire on the 7th.
On the 23rd of last month, roughly $500 million (about 740 billion won) in sell trades occurred just 15 minutes before U.S. President Donald Trump announced the postponement of strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure. Oil prices plunged 15 percent immediately after the announcement.
As trades timed precisely with pivotal war-related developments continue to surface, concerns are mounting in U.S. political and legal circles that "some investors may be exploiting an information advantage."
In response to these suspicions, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has launched an investigation into crude oil futures market activity.
According to Bloomberg on the 15th, the CFTC has requested trading records from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) and the ICE Futures Exchange, and is reportedly seeking to obtain "Tag 50" data, which can identify the parties behind the trades.
The investigation covers a series of large-scale trades executed just before war-related policy shifts, including those on March 23 and April 7.
Some observers say these trades could suggest the use of insider information or a connection to the policymaking process, and several U.S. senators have called for a rigorous probe, saying the activity "may constitute market manipulation."
